Active hostilities in the Russia-Ukraine war that marks its fourth anniversary on Tuesday amid US-led peace efforts could end this year but a comprehensive settlement may take longer, experts say.
US President Donald Trump boasted he could end the war that began on Feb. 24, 2022 in 24 hours of his return to the White House, but fighting continues despite more than a year of meetings and talks with both his Ukrainian and Russian counterparts, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, as well as European partners.
Since the start of 2026, three rounds of US-mediated peace talks have been held between Moscow and Kyiv, the first two in Abu Dhabi and the third in Geneva. Besides the exchange of prisoners, a first in five months, there has been little progress, particularly on issues involving territorial concessions, one of the major sticking points.
While US envoy Steve Witkoff, who led Washington’s delegation, said the talks achieved “meaningful progress,” another round is expected by the month’s end.
CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES
Andrey Kortunov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, a think tank based in Moscow, said the Ukraine war has triggered changes in the European security architecture, and that while a cessation of hostilities is quite realistic by the end of this year, a comprehensive settlement requires more time.
“Everyone would like the conflict to end sooner, but here we need to clarify how we understand the end of the conflict,” Kortunov told Anadolu in an interview.
According to him, with a political will on both sides, as well as “favorable external conditions,” one can hope the active phase of the conflict could end “by the end of this year.”
But, he argued, a final settlement essentially implies the creation of a new European security system, which essentially means decoupling from US dependence on defense. “And this is certainly a much more complex task, and solving it will require a different composition of participants. It is clear, for example, that it will be very difficult to reach an agreement without the leading European countries, since we are, after all, talking about the European continent,” Kortunov said.
This, in his opinion, will be a lengthy process and “unlikely to fit within a few months.”
On the recent peace negotiations in Geneva, Kortunov said the decision on holding another round of talks in the near future is a “positive result.”
“This means that both sides are committed to continuing the dialogue and do not view the discussions in Geneva as useless or, even more so, harmful,” he said.
‘WILL TO KEEP ON FIGHTING’
Simon Schlegel, program director for Ukraine at the Center for Liberal Modernity in Berlin, also believes a settlement will take longer than this year.
“What can really bring an end to this war is that one party or the other loses the ability to keep on fighting, and none of the parties is close to this point,” Schlegel said.
He said Kyiv is less inclined to stop fighting than it was a year ago, and there is a “real interest for them to fight on.”
“Ukraine has come out of a really bad artillery hammer in 2023. They have resolved the most pressing problems in personnel questions. They have now more or less enough people at the front line. They don’t have enough to build a reserve and go into the offensive, but they have enough people at the moment to defend their lines,” the analyst said.
He said Ukraine has “more or less weathered” the pullout of US military aid a year ago, and that, with the help of Europeans, has managed to keep up supplies for basic military needs — not to go on the offensive but to defend and hold the front line.
“Ukraine doesn’t have any other choice, really … No amount of pressure from the United States can now really change the balance,” he added.
As for Russia, Schlegel said, the country is “a bit closer now” to stop the fighting than it was a year ago, but it can continue the war in both economic and military terms.
“Russia is able and ready to pay a very high price in terms of its economy, but also in terms of recruiting people into the army and using them up very quickly with these infantry assaults. They are very costly for the Russian army, but Russia so far is able to replace those quick deaths as well,” Schlegel said.
He claimed Russia’s economy is now showing “signs of weakness,” but while it will probably not grow this year, it is also unlikely to collapse, and “therefore it can go on to fight this war as well.”
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