Hungary election live: Polls in Hungary close in tightly fought election after 16 years under Viktor Orbán

in Budapest’s 14th district

Making the most of a beautiful day in Budapest, I spent a large part of the day zooming around Budapest (using the city’s great bike paths!) and chatting with voters.

In the 14th district of Budapest, I spoke with several people voting in the polling stations on Ajtósi Dürer sor.

Atilla, 35, told me that he was confident about the result because of “the vibes” in the city and the country. “It will be really big change,” he told me confidently.

But where was that confidence coming from, I ask. “[It’s] because of the vibes in Hungary,” he replied with a cheeky smile. “It’s the vibes, [everyone is] so passionate, and I’m hearing it’s not just in Budapest, like four years ago; it’s better.”

How much a potential change of government would mean to him?

No words to say how much. Too much.

Separately, Barbara and Margit, 21, also expressed some hope about the result – but they struck a more cautious note.

“I feel really hopeful. We finally have a chance to change the government,” Margit said.

But Barbara said she wanted to stay “realistic” before the results come in.

“I thought last time around that the opposition seemed pretty strong and it wasn’t [in the end]. I’m trying to not get my hopes up, but we will see. I hope something changes today.”

She added that if the opposition wins,

“It will mean a lot – not just for us as a country, but also for Europe in general. I have seen quite a few posts about the Czech Republic and different countries, all waiting for [the results of] our election.”

in Budapest’s 5th district

I went to a few polling stations today to get a sense of how Budapest residents in the heart of the city are feeling about today’s elections.

Most of them weren’t sure about the outcome, despite most polls showing a confident lead for Tisza, but expressed hope. Some young voters said they feel like they are witnessing a historic moment.

“I really hope there will be a change of government,” Fruzsi, 22, told me at Erzsébet Square, next to the famous Budapest ferris wheel, right after she cast her vote. “My experience is that there are so many angry people because they are lying to us.”

She says she is really bothered by the intense propaganda the government is pushing on voters.

Gergő, 36, seemed a little more nervous about the results. He said he and others anticipated change during previous elections, too, and were unpleasantly surprised by the outcome. So now he is more cautious and approaches today with an “anything is possible” attitude.

“But I am anticipating change. At least I’m hoping. … This arrogant political style from the government, and that they are inciting hate and attacking everyone, from teachers to judges and all ethnic groups, is awful,” he told me, adding that when the government is done with attacking Zelenskyy, they’ll find a new enemy.

Mária, 81, is also hopeful, but she is hoping for a very different outcome than Fruzsi and Gergő, rooting for the ruling party, Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz.

“I trust that he’ll protect our country,” she told me, adding that she doesn’t think the war is the biggest threat looming over Hungary, but rather “all of these extremist people who don’t think the way they should.” She said people should not have too high expectations for the government because they don’t have the budget to execute everything, and is hopeful that it’ll be another supermajority for Orbán.

I am now heading over to the international press room at the Tisza event – after making sure I’m properly caffeinated for the long night ahead…

in Budapest

So much focus on Hungary is somewhat understandable as a recent Liberties report found that Orbán’s Hungary “remains in a category of its own [in Europe], continuing to pursue ever more regressive laws and policies with no sign of change”.

But it’s not the only country with severe problems when it comes to the rule of law.

Drawing on evidence from more than 40 NGOs in 22 countries, the Civil Liberties Union for Europe (Liberties) described the governments of Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Italy and Slovakia as “dismantlers” that were actively weakening the rule of law.

But we also looked at the rule of law more broadly…

… as well as the far-right’s attacks on Europe’s public service media …

… and on how Europe’s civil society fights back against some of these controversial moves across the continent.

The report was prepared by our Europe correspondent Jon Henley, with contributions from Deborah Cole in Berlin, Angela Giuffrida in Rome, and, well, me!

in Berehove

Across much of Ukraine, Sunday’s parliamentary election in Hungary is being followed with a singular hope: that Viktor Orbán, the Kremlin-friendly leader who has made opposition to Kyiv a centrepiece of his campaign, will be voted out after 16 years in office.

But in Berehove, the mood is more complicated.

In this small town of about 30,000 in Ukraine’s hilly Zakarpattia region, ethnic Hungarians form a majority, and Hungarian is heard as often as Ukrainian. Daily life – from schooling to the television channels watched at home – remains closely tethered to neighbouring Hungary.

Some residents admit, often quietly, that they are rooting for Orbán’s Fidesz party.

Orbán has long portrayed himself as a defender of ethnic Hungarians abroad – about 60,000 of whom live in Zakarpattia – claiming they face widespread discrimination in Ukraine and are being forced to assimilate into Ukrainian society.

His critics, both in Hungary and within Ukraine, say he has exaggerated – and at times distorted – those grievances to justify a hostile stance towards Kyiv and its western allies.

Ashifa Kassam and Flora Garamvölgyi
in Budapest

Paid for by its rightwing, populist government, the billboards attacking Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the opposition leader, Péter Magyar, blanket Hungary.

It’s a nod to the election strategy that Viktor Orbán, the EU’s longest-serving leader, has unleashed as he lags in most polls before upcoming elections: convincing voters that the country’s greatest threat is not fraying social services, the rising cost of living or economic stagnation, but rather the neighbouring country of Ukraine.

“Effectively, Ukraine is portrayed as a main enemy,” said Zsuzsanna Végh, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund. “This is not just about Ukraine per se, but it fits into the standard strategy of the governing party, of mobilising its electorate through generating fear in society.”

In 2018, when Orbán was seeking a third consecutive term as prime minister, he and his Fidesz party sought to stoke fears about migration. In 2022, as voters headed to the ballot box five weeks after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Orbán peddled the baseless claim that the opposition would send Hungarian troops to fight in the war.

This election, as Orbán faces an unprecedented challenge from a former top member of his own party, Péter Magyar, the strategy has seemingly been kicked into high gear. “We definitely see a significant escalation,” said Végh.

In the final weeks of the campaign, Viktor Orbán and his ministers also repeatedly clashed with Ukraine and EU member states over Budapest’s close ties with Moscow.

In one leaked phone call, it appeared that Orbán offered to go to great lengths to help Vladimir Putin, telling the Russian leader “I am at your service” in an October call, it has emerged, prompting further scrutiny of Budapest’s ties to the Kremlin just as JD Vance arrived in the city.

Separately, a number of leaked telephone calls between Hungary’s foreign minister Péter Szijjártó and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, prompted the European Commission to demand an urgent explanation from Budapest.

In the leaked conversations, the pair talked about a number of confidential EU discussions, including on EU sanctions on Russia and the bloc’s accession policy towards Ukraine, with Szijjártó even offering to share some internal documents.

Their interactions were branded “repulsive” and “unacceptable” by several EU leaders.

In response, one of the country’s best-known investigative journalists was also targeted by the government with spying allegations.

In the build up to today’s vote, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán received unprecedented backing from foreign leaders, many of whom even made the trip to Budapest to offer their public endorsement.

In late March, several like-minded leaders from across Europe – including France’s Marine Le Pen and the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders – attended a “Patriots for Europe” meeting in Budapest, praising the embattled prime minister and his importance in the conservative movement.

And in the last week, the US vice-president JD Vance flew into Budapest to appear alongside Orbán and endorse him just days before the vote.

“It’s unprecedented for an American vice-president to come the week before an election,” he acknowledged.

But he said he had decided to come because of what he described as the “garbage happening against” Orbán in the election, and said he wanted “to help, as much as I possibly can” – all while rejecting claims of interference.

But his boss, the US president, Donald Trump, has also not exactly been shy about expressing his preferences, repeatedly urging Hungarians to vote for his ideological ally.

On Friday, he even offered to throw “the full economic might of the US to strengthen Hungary’s economy,” stepping up his support for Orbán even further.

Ashifa Kassam and Flora Garamvölgyi
in Budapest

As a child growing up in Budapest, Péter Magyar had a poster of Viktor Orbán – at the time a leading figure in the country’s pro-democracy movement – hanging above his bed.

Orbán was one of several political figures that adorned his bedroom, Magyar told a podcast last year, hinting at his excitement over the changes sweeping the country after the collapse of communism.

Now Magyar, 45, is the driving force behind what could be another momentous political change in Hungary: the ousting of Orbán, whose 16 years in power has transformed the country into a “petri dish for illiberalism”.

Conversations with those who know Magyar often alternate between admiration and antipathy. Many praise the tremendous movement he has built and the discipline he has shown as he crisscrosses the country, giving up to six speeches a day, while also describing him as someone with a short temper and a style that can be abrasive at times.

Others see him as the perfect fit for the magnitude of the moment. “I think, like all politicians, he can be a difficult person,” said Tamás Topolánszky, a film-maker who was part of a team that spent the past 18 months following Magyar for a film on the wider change sweeping Hungarian society.

Topolánszky described Magyar as authentic and passionate, but also someone who could be impatient at times. “I think that this is something that we Hungarians now see was necessary to get us to this point.”

Opposition leader Péter Magyar said today’s vote in Hungary amounted to “a choice between East or West” which would define the country’s future for “a very, very long time.”

Speaking to reporters after voting in Budapest, Magyar presented the vote as a historic choice of the country’s orientation and between “propaganda or honest public discourse; corruption or clean public life.”

He said first turnout data was “very, very encouraging,” but urged everyone to vote.

The fate of Hungary is being decided today for a very, very long time.

The Tisza leader appeared confident about the result of the vote, saying his party “will win this election,” but “the question is whether we can get this two-thirds mandate, or do we have to govern with a simple majority.”

He said a supermajority would make it easier to “dismantle this system, tear apart this spider web which entangles our country.”

Magyar also responded to speculations about potential provocations that could see the result contested, urging people to “maintain their peace.”

“No one should give in to any provocation. We know for sure that if this election takes place calmly and legally, then this election will be won by Tisza and Hungary,” he said.

Speaking about the turnout (17:20), we have just had the latest update, showing record-high levels of interest in the election.

More than 74% of the electorate has cast their votes by 5pm, up from 62% at the same time of the day in 2022.

Europe correspondent

After years of relentless EU-bashing by their nationalist, illiberal prime minister, an overwhelming majority of Hungary’s voters back its membership of the bloc, and most – including many of Viktor Orbán’s voters – now want a new approach to Brussels.

Days before elections at which Orbán, who has consistently painted the EU as an enemy of the Hungarian people, risks being ousted after 16 years in power, a poll has shown a huge appetite for a recalibration of the country’s relations with the bloc.

The survey, by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank, found that 77% of voters support EU membership; three-quarters of respondents “trust” the bloc; and 68% want at least some degree of change in Hungary’s EU engagement.

Orbán has battled with Brussels – which has suspended billions of euros in funding – over a wide range of policies including on justice, migration, LGBTQ+ rights and aid for Ukraine, which, along with sanctions against Russia, he has consistently blocked.

EU leaders have largely steered clear of commenting on Sunday’s vote to avoid accusations of seeking to influence it, but Orbàn’s status as a far-right icon in Europe and beyond makes the election the bloc’s most consequential this year.

While the desire for change was strongest (91%) among supporters of Péter Magyar, the centre-right challenger whose Tisza party leads Orbán’s Fidesz by a double-digit margin in recent polls, nearly half (45%) of Fidesz voters also wanted a reset.

Majorities of Fidesz voters also said they supported Hungary’s continued membership of the EU (65%) and “trusted” the bloc (64%), while a large minority (43%, compared with 66% in the population as a whole) even backed Hungary joining the euro.

Ashifa Kassam and Flora Garamvölgyi
in Budapest

Today’s election comes 23 years to the day after Hungarians voted overwhelmingly to join the European Union, drawing comparisons to that historic vote and its influence on the future of the country.

“Now, on 12 April, once again, voters are not simply choosing between parties, but deciding the direction, identity, and future of Hungary,” Tisza’s Anita Orbán, no relation to the prime minister, said on social media. “In many ways, this election is a referendum on whether Hungary returns to European values.”

It was a hint of how much has changed in Hungary since Orbán took power in 2010. What followed was, in the words of Zoltán Kész, a former member of the Fidesz party, nothing less than a “coup in slow motion,” albeit one that eschewed tanks for lawyers and clientelism.

The rightwing populist government had used its time in office to steadily whittle away at the checks and balances that constrained its power: rewriting election laws to its own benefit, manoeuvring to put loyalists in control of an estimated 80% of the country’s media, and retooling the country’s judiciary.

Meanwhile, Budapest has become a hub of thinktanks and conferences aimed at amplifying the idea of Hungary, in the words of one local journalist, as a “Christian conservative Disneyland” where the global far right feels at home.