Inflation expectations among households and the real sector rose in August, while expectations among market participants declined, a survey by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) showed on Monday.
Market participants’ expectations for inflation in 12 months fell 0.26 percentage points to 23.69%, according to the CBRT’s Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey.
Expectations among the real sector rose 0.30 points to 32.80%, while household expectations increased 0.64 points to 45.58%.
Türkiye’s annual consumer price inflation eased to 31.75% in July 2026, down from 32.11% in June.
Last week, the CBRT adjusted its end-2026 inflation forecast upward to 28% from 26% mainly due to energy and food price pressures. But it left its interim target unchanged at 24%.
The bank also kept its interim inflation targets for end-2027 and end-2028 at 15% and 9%, respectively.
Monday’s survey showed the share of households expecting inflation to decline over the next 12 months also fell in August.
The proportion of households expecting inflation to decrease over the coming year dropped 0.78 percentage points to 16.85%.
Food, energy biggest sources of price increases
Households continued to identify food, fuel and energy as the product and service groups that experienced the largest price increases over the previous year.
These are also expected to see the strongest increases over the next 12 months.
The share of respondents identifying food as the category with the largest price increase fell 0.4 percentage points to 39.3% in August.
Households’ expectations for housing price increases over the next 12 months also moderated slightly.
The expected increase in housing prices over the coming year fell 0.36 percentage points to 32.13%.
The survey also showed a rise in expectations for the Turkish lira’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar.
The 12-month-ahead dollar/TL expectation increased by TL 1.49 from the previous month to TL 54.47.
