Will mortgage interest rates improve this September? 3 things to consider now

Following a month in which inflation improved but there was no Federal Reserve meeting in which to capitalize on the news, many borrowers find themselves looking forward to September and some potential positive movement again. With an inflation report scheduled for release on September 11, a Federal Reserve meeting the week after, not to mention unemployment numbers released earlier in the month – all of which have the potential to impact the rate climate – borrowers can easily find themselves in a markedly different position one month from now.

That’s especially important for homebuyers and owners hoping to refinance. 

After rates improved by more than a full percentage point in 2025, much of that decline was reversed in 2026 and, in recent months, mortgage purchase and refinance rates have remained stubbornly unchanged. This has left borrowers with limited ways to secure an affordable rate and it’s left many on the sidelines urgently hoping for some change that could actually improve the mortgage interest rate climate in a positive way. But is that likely to happen this September, or can borrowers expect more of the same? With mortgage rates known to change daily, it helps to keep a few items under consideration for the weeks ahead. Below, we’ll break down three specific ones that borrowers should contemplate now as they look to secure an affordable deal.

Start by seeing which mortgage interest rate you currently qualify for here.

Will mortgage interest rates improve in September? 3 things to consider now

Projecting future mortgage rate movement is inherently difficult to do with precision, as any number of factors – both known and unknown – have the potential to drive rates in either direction. But with rates changing daily based on market conditions, it helps to keep the following three items in mind now, even if it only results in a temporary opening in which to lock in a below-average purchase or refinance rate:

Geopolitical tensions and overseas conflicts

It was only March 2 when the average mortgage rate on a 30-year term was just 5.75%, almost a full percentage point below what most buyers are being offered right now. However, rates didn’t spike in recent months based on any Fed action or lack thereof. They rose in large part on the back of geopolitical tensions, overseas conflicts and the war with Iran, leading to a spike in oil prices and inflation. 

In other words, if one or more of those items improves in September, then it’s not unfathomable that the wider interest rate climate will cool, too, and that could lead to a reduction in mortgage interest rates. While that reduction may be minimal and it could even be temporary, any relief here will be welcomed for borrowers. Monitor the news cycle closely, then, for an opportunity to lock in a below-average rate if and when it presents itself in the month.

Learn more about your current mortgage rate options online today.

Further reductions in the inflation rate

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its next inflation reading, this time for August, on Friday, September 11. If it shows another reduction as the July report did, it could serve as motivation for the Federal Reserve to cut rates later in the month. Remember, too, that lenders don’t need to wait for the Fed to adjust their offers to borrowers. 

So if this report is a positive one, don’t be surprised to see improved rate offers in the days that follow. Just be ready to act if this scenario actually occurs. And make sure to improve your credit score and overall appeal as a borrower now, in case it does.

The Federal Reserve meeting later in the month

The central bank will meet again on September 15 and September 16, and it will do so with new unemployment and inflation numbers to interpret and, potentially, changes to the geopolitical environment. Even though an actual rate cut in the meeting currently seems unlikely, any positive comments made by officials here still have the potential to move mortgage rates in a more affordable direction. 

That said, the opposite can also happen, so borrowers will need to be careful to avoid being overly dependent on Fed movements. Instead, consider the advantages of a mortgage rate lock now. You can always unlock and re-lock a lower one should it materialize post-meeting, but if it doesn’t, you’ll be protected from any additional upward pressures, too.

The bottom line

Mortgage interest rates certainly have the potential to change this September after remaining high and largely stuck for much of the summer. Which direction they move in, however, will largely depend on any resolution to overseas conflicts and geopolitical tensions, the fight toward reducing the inflation rate and, ultimately, the Federal Reserve. Don’t discount the 10-year Treasury yield, too, which is also known to be a big driver behind mortgage rates in both directions. In the interim, however, it can be worth considering the pros and cons of a mortgage rate lock while also doing all you can to boost your credit score, that way you’re positioned to actually secure an affordable rate when it inevitably presents itself again.