Iran war hits 6-month mark with no end in sight

The head of the U.S. military’s Central Command, Adm. Brad Cooper, has echoed President Trump’s insistence that the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes are clear of sea mines, saying they are “open, and momentum is building.” 

He acknowledged, however, that vessels still seek direct U.S. military protection to use the vital waterway, which Iran has scared many commercial shippers away from since the U.S. and Israel launched their joint war on Iran six months ago — driving global oil prices up by about 30% compared to pre-war levels.

In a video statement posted online Thursday evening, Cooper said the U.S. military had “meticulously and quietly” cleared mines laid months ago by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 

“Internationally recognized transit routes in the strait are free of Iranian sea mines thanks to the incredible work of the U.S. military,” he said. “Today, international shipping lanes are open, and momentum is building.”

President Trump said Thursday that the U.S. helped 24 oil tankers transit the strait the previous night, reiterating his insistence that the waterway was de-mined, which he’d said several times before Cooper released his statement.

But two dozen ships is a far cry from the roughly 120 that would typically transit the strait daily before the U.S. and Israel launched their joint war on Iran, and shippers remain highly wary of using the waterway given Iran’s ongoing threat to vessels that risk passage without coordination with Tehran.

Some U.S. allies have also said they do not believe the strait has been fully de-mined, according to a Thursday report by Bloomberg.

Regardless of whether mines still lurk in the water, Iran’s threat to attack ships has kept traffic to a minimum. Even as he touted building momentum, Cooper acknowledged that ships still want direct U.S. assistance to make the passage, saying: “Over the past several months, U.S. forces have assisted nearly 1,500 commercial vessels in transiting the strait by providing coordinated protection.”

He said while the U.S. had enabled those ships to move 750 million barrels of crude oil out of the Persian Gulf, “Iran has exported zero barrels of oil from its shores since we resumed the naval blockade in mid-July.”

Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad acknowledged on Thursday that the country’s exports had “declined to some extent” – which is likely a significant understatement – but he insisted “the sale of our oil outside our territorial waters, in distant waters — meaning the delivery of oil to our customers — has continued,” despite the U.S. blockade.

Analysts note that Iran can also export its energy products over land, including to its most valuable trade partner, China.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laid out plans this week for the “economic asphyxiation” of Iran, warning of dire consequences for countries that don’t join the campaign.

Iran’s leaders, however, dismissed the impact of the new measures, having already endured decades-long crippling sanctions since shortly after the 1979 revolution.

And analysts say a successful chokehold on the Islamic Republic would require cooperation from China — but that’s unlikely.

Bessent told China to “get with the program,” but Beijing instead has defended its cooperation with Tehran and vowed to safeguard its interests. 

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian reiterated China’s “firm opposition to illegal unilateral sanctions without the basis of international law and without authorization from the UN Security Council,” adding that, “economic warfare and extreme pressure do not help solve problems; they only further intensify conflicts, cause risks to spill over, disrupt the global economic and financial order, and harm the legitimate rights and interests of other countries.”

Lin said China’s cooperation with Iran was “conducted within the framework of international law and should not be disrupted or undermined.”

Before the war, Tehran exported millions of barrels of oil a day, mostly to China. Despite China buying less Iranian oil than it had been, the purchases remain an important source of revenue for Iran.

Although most ship traffic in the vital Strait of Hormuz is still blocked and the U.S. is blockading Iranian ports, China isn’t totally cut off from Iran’s crude thanks to the highways and railways of Central Asia, said Sun Degang, a professor of political science at Shanghai’s Fudan University.

CBS/AFP

It’s been six months since the United States and Israel attacked Iran with the perennial goal of transforming the Middle East through military force. The region has changed, but not in the way they had hoped.

The Islamic Republic survived the assassination of its top leaders and weeks of heavy bombing, and found a potent form of leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf Arab nations saw worrying gaps open up in the American security umbrella they have relied on for decades – and some are looking at alternatives.

Israel has once again thrashed its enemies without defeating them, and after nearly three years of war in Gaza and new land seizures, is at risk of a generational rupture with the U.S., its closest ally. Hopes of normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia – another enduring U.S. and Israeli aspiration – have dimmed even further.

When they attacked Iran on Feb. 28, the U.S. and Israel hoped to topple its clerical leadership and replace it with a pro-Western government. Instead, they’ve ended up with a “hardened and very radical regime,” said Barbara Leaf, a former ambassador who served as assistant secretary of state for the Middle East in the Biden administration.

“That is going to be exceptionally difficult to deal with, to say the least,” she said. Iran’s “confidence has grown over the months that it cannot only survive, but it can prevail, it can reset the regional landscape.” 

President Trump insisted Thursday that Iran is “begging to make a deal,” as Iranian officials push back against the U.S. and talks between the two countries remain stalled.

“I don’t want to meet, they do,” he said in a Truth Social post that lashed out at a Fox News report.

Mr. Trump told reporters earlier Thursday his administration is “not looking to meet” with Iran, arguing the naval blockade on Iranian ports and ever-tightening sanctions on Iran’s economy have inflicted severe damage on the country.

Publicly, Iranian officials have stood firm, vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping traffic unless the U.S. returns to a temporary deal the two sides struck earlier this summer. Mr. Trump claims the strait is open, but ships have been hesitant to sail through the vital waterway.

Meanwhile, Qatar’s foreign minister visited Tehran on Thursday and urged the two sides to “resume the diplomatic process.”

President Trump fired back at a reporter Thursday who asked whether the U.S. would institute sanctions on Chinese banks that cooperate with Iran, responding, “Who says I’m not?”

The president was asked about the potential punishment for China after officials in that country said they would not support U.S. sanctions on Iran. China is Iran’s largest trade partner.

“Well, who said I’m not? You said, ‘Why not?’ I mean, who said I’m not?” Mr. Trump responded. “You don’t know if I’m doing it. Well, I don’t have to announce everything, do I?”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that China should “get with the program” in regard to sanctions during an interview with CNBC. However, Chinese officials called the sanctions “illegal” and “unilateral” and said they would not enforce them.

Bessent and Mr. Trump have called the sanctions unprecedented and said they will lead to the total economic isolation of the country. Iran has criticized the sanctions, but also said they’ve been preparing for the sanctions for two years. 

There has now been a total of 75 ships heading into or exiting Iranian ports redirected by U.S. military blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. Central Command.

The update was the first since Monday, when CENTCOM said 71 ships had been redirected since the blockade went back into place on July 14.

President Trump again touted the blockade’s effectiveness in a White House Oval Office event Thursday.

“The Strait of Hormuz is open. We have control and we have the blockade,” Mr. Trump said. “Iran’s not getting anything through. Nothing is getting through. Not one ship has gotten through.”