The average price of diesel gas on Wednesday hit its highest level since the Iran war started, as a global supply bottleneck tightens and seasonal demand is poised to rise.
The fuel that powers everything from boats and trains to farm equipment and 18-wheelers hit $5.69 a gallon nationwide, according to AAA data. That’s up 33 cents from just a month ago, and 54% from September 2025, when the average price was $3.69 a gallon.
The pace of price increases for diesel have been much higher than for unleaded gasoline, which is up about 29% percent from the same period last year.
“There are more alarms going off for diesel than for other crude oil products,” said Gregory Brew, an analyst with the Eurasia Group consultancy.
Following a diesel-price surge this summer that was largely due to airstrikes targeting refineries in the Middle East, experts say that now the Ukraine war, and specifically Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries inside Russia, is having an equal or even greater effect on diesel prices.
Russia is the world’s second largest exporter of diesel fuel after the U.S., Brew noted. With key Russian oil refineries forced offline, the result has been a massive reduction in Eastern European diesel exports, he said.
Meanwhile, U.S. diesel stockpiles in late August had fallen to seasonal levels not seen since the 1980s, according to the federal Energy Information Administration.
As global demand for diesel remains steady, the current supply shock means that refiners in the U.S. and Canada can charge a premium for their diesel products.
Profit margins for major diesel refiners recently hit record highs, according to the EIA. In response to the market forces, U.S. refiners have increased their exports of diesel and related fuels by approximately 28% over the past 12 months.
For major refiners like Valero and Marathon, this has meant a windfall in profits. Since mid-June, both companies have seen their share prices climb by more than 45%.
The growing role that refining capacity is playing in gas prices has also caught the eye of the White House, which is looking for ways to cut consumer prices and slow inflation.
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump summoned about a dozen major U.S. oil refiners to Washington to discuss how to increase capacity.
“This was not a ‘drill, baby, drill’ meeting. This was a ‘refine, baby, refine’ meeting,” said White House Deputy Press Secretary Taylor Rogers, following the meeting.
Rogers told NewsNation the president and the oil executives had discussed potential ways to expand their refining capacity — including possible regulatory changes — but she did not provide specifics.
Across the broader economy, surging prices for a wholesale product like diesel fuel also leaves retailers in a quandary. Do they lower their own profit margins to absorb the higher costs, or pass them on to inflation-weary consumers and risk a drop in sales?
Experts say it’s more likely to be the former, which means that grocery prices could resume their march higher this Fall.
Driving demand for diesel even higher will be farmers around the world, who need it to power agricultural equipment. The annual harvest season in the northern hemisphere corresponds with the planting season below the equator.
The increased cost of producing food this Fall will likely be reflected in prices next Spring, too.
J.P. Morgan analysts recently warned that the global food inflation is expected to hit 5% in the first half of 2027, nearly double the rate in the first half of this year.
More immediately, however, the key month for diesel demand will be October, when home heating, seasonal agriculture and global shipping ahead of the holidays all overlap.
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