German exit polls suggest far-right party has big lead in regional election

Ulrich Siegmund, top candidate for the “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) party votes at a polling station during the Saxony-Anhalt state elections in Tangermuende, eastern Germany, Sunday, Sept. 6, 2026.

Matthias Schrader/AP

Matthias Schrader/AP

MAGDEBURG, Germany — The Alternative for Germany party has a strong lead in a regional election, but it is unclear whether it will be able to form the country’s first far-right state government since World War II, exit polls indicated Sunday.

Alternative for Germany, or AfD, went into the vote in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt seeking an absolute majority in the state legislature to govern on its own. That would overcome the so-called “firewall” of mainstream parties’ refusal to work with AfD.

A first state government would be the biggest prize in the party’s 13-year history, at a time of widespread discontent with an unpopular national government that has yet to persuade voters it can get the country’s sluggish economy moving. It would be at least a symbolic blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose center-right party has led Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years.

The polls for ARD and ZDF public television put AfD on around 44% of the vote, more than double its showing five years ago in the region of 2.1 million people west of Berlin.

That was far ahead of the Christian Democratic Union, the center-right party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz that currently leads the state, which was seen polling 18.5% and losing about half its support. The Left Party was seen finishing third with about 9%.

The center-left Social Democrats and Greens also were on course to remain in the state legislature, with around 8%-9% each. It was unclear whether the BSW party would get the 5% of the vote needed to win seats. The exit polls put AfD at least marginally short of an absolute majority.

Ulrich Siegmund, AfD’s charismatic 35-year-old candidate for state governor, told ARD that “we have written history.” Voters, he said, had sent a signal that “things cannot carry on like this.”

He said that the unpopular Merz had been “a very good campaigner for us.”

Franziska Hoppermann, the national general secretary of Merz’s CDU, said that it was “a very difficult result for us.”

AfD is the biggest opposition party in Germany’s national parliament and is strongest in the formerly communist and less prosperous east, where Saxony-Anhalt is located.

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