Sweden election: exit polls project centre-left government and bad night for the far-right – live

Ready for some drama?

The SVT’s first projection is here, and… gosh.

Oh, turns out they need a bit more time.

Their numbers have slightly changed, but it’s based on very partial results, and they say they need a bit more to properly run their model.

So the wait continues.

The SVT superprojection is coming any moment now.

Ready?

Digging into SVT/Valu poll data, as many as 64% of the people who voted for the Liberal party only decided to do so in the last week.

In sharp contrast, the equivalent number for the far-right Sweden Democrats stands at mere 18%.

Overall, one in three voters only made their mind up this week, the poll says.

Here’s the SVT/Valu exit poll in a visual form.

The numbers show the projected vote share.

Remember Nicholas Aylott’s argument from earlier – that a small section of the electorate caring deeply about the creeping normalisation of the Sweden Democrats could shift the balance if they switched sides (18:40)?

Well, SVT’s Valu exit poll shows that 12% of voters who backed prime minister Ulf Kristersson in 2022 have opted for one of the four opposition parties this time around – with 6% choosing Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats.

We will need more data, but it’s entirely plausible that discomfort over normalising the far right played some role in that swing.

First actual results are now coming in, but it will take a while before they tell any meaningful story.

I will keep an eye on this for you.

That 9pm-ish SVT superforecast (20:33) can boast a great backstory.

Essentially tl;dr, a group of geeks ran an algorithm four years ago which proved to be so superior than anything else that they were snapped by the public broadcaster to work for them this time round.

Aftonbladet has the story in full.

Their Valprognos should drop around 9.10pm local time (8.10pm UK) and give us a better idea of what the numbers could look like at the end of the night.

So we have about 30 minutes to grab a cup of coffee.

Nordic correspondent

If the exit polls prove to be right, early indications suggest a very dramatic night ahead for Sweden.

If correct, it would not only mean a major shift in power from right to left and a new prime minister in the form of Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson, but also a catastrophe for the far-right Sweden Democrats.

The SVT early exit poll puts Jimmie Åkesson’s party in third place – currently the Sweden Democrats are the country’s second biggest party after the Social Democrats.

If under these conditions Andersson were to form a left-leaning government, it would make the Moderates opposition leaders.

But, but, but…

“Sälj inte skinnet innan björnen är skjuten.”

“Don’t sell the pelt before the bear is shot,” as Ulf Kristersson himself said in last night’s pre-election TV debate.

I don’t want to be rude to anyone, but Swedish exit polls have been known to be a bit off in the past.

It’s worth waiting until we get some actual results to confirm the findings from the two exit polls.

Sweden’s public broadcaster SVT hopes to publish its superprojection shortly after 9pm (8pm UK), taking into account some early actual results.

By the way, you can tell that Swedes love their Eurovision and TV shows: their exit polls don’t give you the projected results for all parties at once, but give them one by one, which means you don’t know what it means for the full picture until all of them come in.

(wipes sweat from his forehead)

There is certain irony in the fact that the Social Democrats could lead the opposition to power despite actually losing support compared to 2022 (28.4% in both exit polls, compared to 30.3% at the last election) and dipping below 30%.

While the Liberals had reason to worry about whether they would make the new parliament, both exit polls show them firmly above the 4% threshold.

It’s not entirely clear to what extent that’s due to tactical voting from other “blue” parties, but they will be happy with the result anyway.

According to the SVT/Valu exit poll, the opposition parties lead by more than five percentage points – that’s close to the best pre-election polls in the final hours of the campaign – and should comfortably win the election.

Surely the poll can’t be that wrong?

Another immediate talking point is the result of the Sweden Democrats: in the SVT/Valu poll (but not the TV4 poll, mind), they only come third, falling behind the PM Kristersson’s Moderates.

Quite a counter to the narrative about the far-right being on march across Europe.

The SVT/Valu exit poll gives the opposition 183 seats in the new parliament to 166 for the current government and the Sweden Democrats.