U.S. labor market slows with midterms on the horizon

The U.S. labor market slowed during the month of September, according to new data Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The economy added only 29,000 jobs, fewer than expected by economists. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.

Average hourly earnings for workers rose only 0.1% from the prior month and 3% from a year ago.

Additionally, 60,000 jobs were revised out of previous months’ initial readings.

“The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 31,000, from +21,000 to -10,000, and the change for August was revised down by 29,000, from +162,000 to +133,000,” the BLS said in a statement.

Overall, economists expected an addition of 84,000 jobs, an unchanged employment rate at 4.1% and earnings that increased by 3.1% from a year ago, according to a Dow Jones survey.

Friday’s data marks the final monthly employment report that will be issued before the U.S. midterm elections.

For months, the Republican Party and President Donald Trump have faced sagging poll numbers on the economy, as trade wars rage with close allies like Canada, the Iran and Ukraine wars drag on and tariffs continue to roil the global economy.

Democrats hope to flip majorities in both the House and the Senate by hammering the GOP over affordability, gas prices and inflation. September’s jobs report could gave them another data point to help make the case that Americans are worse off today under Trump.

On top of those issues, global bond yields have surged to levels not seen in decades. This week, the U.S. Treasury 10- and 30-year bond yields soared to their highest levels since 2002 and as a result the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped as high as 7.6%.

That came alongside gas prices that remain almost 50% higher than late February, when the U.S. and Israel launched the war against Iran, and as commercial diesel fuel prices sit 70% higher than earlier this year.

Nonetheless, hiring continued, although September’s overall figure was lower than the 133,000 additional jobs created in August, even after revisions.

Stock futures jumped sharply after the release of the data, because a weaker jobs market makes it less likely that the Federal Reserve will rase interest rates when it meets later this month. U.S. Treasury yields initially fell sharply.

The month’s gains can be attributed largely to the healthcare sector, which added 17,000 jobs. Yet even those were at “a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months,” the BLS said.

Construction jobs rose by 11,000 last month, as the widespread AI data center build out continues to drive demand for skilled workers. Manufacturing added 9,000 jobs.

In many major industries, including oil and gas, professional services, and hospitality the agency said employment “showed little change.”

Economists often zero in on the leisure and hospitality sector as an early signal about consumer behaviors. Despite the muted hiring in that sector, most data show that consumer spending has remained steady.

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