Germany’s foreign intelligence chief warned Monday that the country risks being drawn into a conflict with Russia as hybrid attacks ordered by Moscow increase.
Martin Jaeger, head of Germany’s BND spy service, told lawmakers that Russia’s undeclared “shadow war” against Germany and its allies was escalating further and has “taken on a new, more dangerous character”.
“Germany is at risk of being drawn into a violent conflict with Russia,” he said at a hearing of parliament’s intelligence oversight committee in Berlin.
“No other country currently poses such a direct, comprehensive, and concrete threat to Germany,” he added.
Jaeger said that Germany had “become a major obstacle to Russia’s projection of hegemonic power in Europe — and, consequently, a target of Russian actions”.
Germany has repeatedly accused Russia of waging a “hybrid” campaign of espionage, sabotage and other disruptions — charges that Moscow has vehemently denied.
Berlin has invested record sums into rebuilding its military to deter Russia, and is among the largest supporters of Ukraine in its ongoing war with Moscow.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Sunday made an unannounced visit to Kyiv, where he offered further military aid to Ukraine and vowed to continue supporting the country.
Jaeger said Russia is targeting Germany because it serves as the main hub for European support for Ukraine.
“If Germany were to falter, the whole of Europe — and Europe’s support for Ukraine — would begin to slide. That is the axis of attack Russia is targeting and pursuing,” he said.
Still, Jaeger called it “a grand illusion” to believe that Germany’s confrontation with Russia would be over if the war in Ukraine comes to an end.
A Ukrainian defeat meanwhile “would completely alter the security architecture” in Europe and leave Berlin facing “a host of massive problems”, he said.
The spy chief said his agency currently sees “no indication” of plans for a major Russian military attack on a member of the NATO alliance, but warned that “low-level Russian military activities could occur, particularly in the Baltic states”.
There, he warned that Russia might launch “targeted, smaller-scale actions”, similar to the use of masked soldiers in unmarked uniforms, often referred to as “little green men”, who were deployed in Crimea during Russia’s 2014 annexation of the peninsula.
The aim would not be to provoke a full-scale conflict with NATO, Jaeger said, “but rather to test NATO and see how the alliance responds to such incursions”.
Spy services are playing an essential role in this “shadow war”, Jaeger added, stressing the importance of a major reform of Germany’s intelligence agencies passed earlier this year that let German spies engage in more aggressive covert actions beyond just gathering information.
Sinan Selen, the leader of Germany’s BfV domestic intelligence agency, stressed that Russian operations are extending far beyond classic espionage to “sabotage and assassinations”.
“The defence industry and military infrastructure are in the crosshairs,” Selen said, adding that Moscow “is already accepting the risk of potential civilian casualties” in its violent campaign against Germany.
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