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Rivalries add fuel to the flame in multiple games each year. You get matchups that just stand out because of the history of the teams. The fans get a bit more excited, there is more news coverage, and, in general, the games seem to be better. This week we get the Bears and Packers squaring off – one of the biggest rivalries in all the NFL.
The Bears are -3 point favorites at the Packers. If Caleb Williams were playing in the game, I could potentially understand it. However, he is still out for this game. The Bears believe in Tyson Bagent, but I’m not as much of a believer. Chicago wants to run the ball as much as possible and control the clock. That’s how they’ve won the past two games without Williams.
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The Packers have one of the worst rush defenses in the league. That does mean the Bears should have a major advantage. It isn’t just one running back that Chicago is leaning on, either. Through four games, they have run the ball 159 times, with about 130 of those handoffs going to Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift. Both have three touchdowns, and both have over 300 yards. It is almost like coach Ben Johnson is trying to recreate what he had with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery and the Lions.
The Packers may be in a rough spot on defense this week considering how poorly they’ve performed against the run this season. They do have something going for them, though. They are at home, they have the better quarterback, and they have revenge after being eliminated from the postseason last year. They have no running game whatsoever, which is certainly an issue. The team is one-dimensional and predictable, which might be a problem.
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The Bears have a top-3 passing defense in terms of yards per game, but they have faced Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts, Geno Smith, and Bryce Young. The first three are not guys you expect to get a ton of passing yards. Jordan Love is probably the only reason the team has two wins this season. He has 1,041 passing yards and eight touchdowns this season.
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This game may come down to whichever team controls the clock and avoids turnovers. So far, the Bears have been good at that. The Packers don’t look great so far, but I can’t take the Bears on the road in Green Bay with a backup quarterback. Give me the Packers +3 in this one, as I think Jordan Love will be the difference maker.
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