After 16 years in power, Putin’s closest friend in Europe faces a pivotal election

BUDAPEST, Hungary — Few leaders have done more than Hungary’s Viktor Orbán to shape the global right-wing populism that informed President Donald Trump’s MAGA project.

On Sunday, Orbán faces the biggest challenge of his 16-year authoritarian rule as Hungary goes to the polls for a parliamentary election.

It has been a febrile campaign, with allegations of “false flag” operations, wiretapping and even an alleged sex tape plot.

Usually, an election would pose little risk for Orbán. The leader goes into Sunday’s vote as the great survivor on Europe’s political stage, holding power since 2010 thanks to four back-to-back victories, each time gradually increasing his control over the judiciary and media. European Union lawmakers and many Western watchdogs no longer consider his country a full democracy.

This time, however, things are different: He trails in most polls, with Vice President JD Vance flying to Budapest this week in an attempt to reverse his ally’s ailing electoral forecast. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also voiced support for Orbán, who has frequently stood as the lone dissenting voice among E.U. leaders in opposing sanctions on Russia and advocating for warmer relations with Moscow.

Leading the polls is Peter Magyar, a former member of Orbán’s Fidesz party who now leads his own center-right party, Tisza (a portmanteau of “respect” and “freedom” in Hungarian).

A Publicus poll published Friday found Tisza at 52% support and Fidesz at 39% among decided voters, with a quarter of Hungarians undecided. Government-aligned pollsters have been kinder to the incumbent. Alapjogokért Központ, a Christian-conservative think tank that co-organizes the now-annual CPAC Hungary events, had Orbán leading 50%-42% in late March.

Compounding the uncertainty is a redrawing of Hungary’s political map in favor of Orbán’s party, and the almost half a million ethnic Hungarians who are eligible to vote from neighboring Romania and Serbia.

As in previous Hungarian elections, watchdogs have raised concerns that the contest may be free but not fair. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe said in a report last month that interlocutors had raised concerns about a lack of separation between the state and the ruling party’s campaign, as well as fears that broad powers under the ongoing state of emergency in Hungary could be misused during the election.

Magyar has described the vote as a “referendum” on Hungary’s place in the world: a choice between Orbán’s self-described “illiberal” path allied with Putin, and reintegration with the E.U. and the West.

“We do not want a simple change of government, but a real regime change,” Magyar told a rally Friday.

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