Disinflation in Türkiye continues across all subgroups, albeit at varying speeds, the central bank’s chief said on Monday, according to the text of a presentation made in New York.
Annual inflation declined to 30.9% in March despite the pricing pressures from the fallout of the Iran war. Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Governor Fatih Karahan said underlying trend of inflation also eased last month.
In the presentation to investors in the U.S., Karahan said the disinflation process was supported by a reduced rigidity in rent and education prices, an effect he said was expected to continue throughout the year.
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has damaged Gulf energy production, stranded tanker traffic in the key Strait of Hormuz and boosted oil prices in the world’s worst energy shock.
That came as a major test for countries that import most of their energy needs, including Türkiye.
Turkish authorities have taken steps to cushion the fallout of the war on domestic markets. Officials said they were prepared for more steps if the two-week cease-fire, announced last week, does not hold.
The CBRT has already halted its easing cycle at 37%, lifted its overnight rate by about 300 basis points to near 40% and announced steps to support liquidity in the domestic markets.
Bankers on Monday estimated that the central bank bought $13 billion in foreign exchange last week in a reversal since the Iran war began, and total reserves rose by some $9 billion to $171 billion.
Net reserves are estimated to have increased by $10 billion last week to $55 billion, bankers said, citing calculations based on data.
Karahan said declining gold prices have contributed to easing household demand for foreign currency, while international reserves are currently stronger compared to previous periods of capital outflows.
Meanwhile, Turkish authorities last month reintroduced a system that adjusts the special consumption tax (ÖTV) on fuel products and prevents higher oil prices from being fully passed through to consumers.
Karahan said the mechanism, called the “sliding-scale” system, has helped limit inflationary pressures.
The presentation also showed that the governor said demand indicators pointed to a slowdown in Türkiye’s economic activity.
Capacity utilization remains weak, he said, and demand-side indicators suggest moderating growth. Survey-based data also confirm the slowdown, while credit growth decelerated in the first quarter.
On external balances, Karahan stated that the current account deficit, shaped largely by energy imports and tourism revenues, remains below historical averages.
Official data on Monday showed Türkiye’s current account balance registered a deficit of $7.5 billion in February, in line with market expectations.
The figure lifted the January-February deficit to $14.54 billion.
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