China’sinflationunexpectedly accelerated in April, while factory-gate prices surged to a 45-month high, as theMiddle Eastconflict drove upglobal energy costs, official data showed on Monday.
Consumer price inflation rose to 1.2% in April from 1% in March, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported. Prices were expected to climb 0.9%.
Food prices declined 1.6% due to weaker pork prices. The increase in overall inflation reflects the surge in global commodity prices due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, core inflation that excludes food and energy, edged up to 1.2% from 1.1% a month ago.
Other data from the NBS showed that producer prices increased at the strongest pace since July 2022. Factory gate inflation climbed to 2.8% from 0.5% in March. This was well above economists’ forecast of 1.5%.
Data released over the weekend showed that China’s exports increased 14.1% on a yearly basis in April and imports surged 25.3%. As a result, the trade surplus rose to $84.8 billion in April.
ING economist Lynn Song said the People’s Bank of China is likely to keep pause on rate. Unlike many central banks globally, China’s next move remains more likely to be a cut than a hike.
It looks increasingly likely that such a move will not happen until at least the second half of the year, barring a significantly sharper-than-expected deterioration in activity data ahead, Song noted.
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