‘Test of patience:’ Iran war becoming ‘war of attrition’ with no clear victory in sight, analysts warn

The Iran war is increasingly turning into a prolonged war of attrition, analysts say, with all sides relying as much on economic pressure, endurance and political calculation as on military confrontation.

Despite intermittent exchanges of fire and diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, experts say neither side appears capable of securing a decisive victory, raising the prospect of a drawn-out confrontation centered on exhausting the opponent economically, militarily and psychologically.

“This has turned into a war of attrition — a test of patience,” said Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at King’s College London. “The question is: who will break first?”

The conflict entered a new phase after Iran responded Sunday to a US proposal aimed at ending the war. Tehran conveyed its response through Pakistan, but US President Donald Trump dismissed it as “totally unacceptable.”

The US and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28, triggering retaliatory attacks by Tehran against Israel and US allies in the Gulf, as well as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

More than 3,300 people have been killed and tens of thousands displaced in Iran, alongside dozens more in Israel and Gulf countries.

– ECONOMIC PRESSURE THROUGH HORMUZ

Analysts say the economic dimension of the conflict has become one of the most important fronts in the war.

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global shipping routes, pushed oil prices higher and intensified pressure on Western economies, while also damaging Iran’s own economy.

In April, the Statistical Center of Iran reported annual inflation of 73.5%.

“It’s all about damaging the economy,” Marina Miron, a military analyst at King’s College London, told Anadolu.

Brandon Carr, a research associate specializing in military affairs and defense studies at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has become one of Iran’s strongest pressure points.

“The Iranians are keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, so oil prices continue to climb and start to put pressure on the US and the broader West,” Carr said.

He noted that the disruption goes beyond oil supplies.

“There are also critical materials moving through the strait that are essential for manufacturing and military production,” he said, citing commodities such as gallium, sulfur and copper.

At the same time, Washington has sought to increase pressure on Tehran through a naval blockade that the US says has prevented vessels from entering or leaving Iranian ports since April 13.

Carr said blockades are generally slow to produce results and are rarely effective on their own, instead becoming more powerful when combined with military attrition.

“It’s really almost a negotiating tactic,” he said of the blockade. “This is now another layer that has been added to negotiations that the Iranians have to try to get lifted or removed.”

– IRAN REBUILDS MILITARY CAPABILITIES

Analysts say both sides are also using pauses in fighting to regroup and rebuild military capacity.

Carr said Iran has managed to recover missile launchers and missiles from underground facilities that survived earlier US strikes.

“They’ve dug out missile launchers. They’ve dug out missiles from these underground bunkers that the US didn’t really destroy,” he said. “They just closed the entrances to them.”

Recent US intelligence assessments cited by The Washington Post and The New York Times said Iran still retains roughly 70% of its mobile missile launchers and much of its prewar missile stockpile despite months of US and Israeli strikes.

The assessments also found that Iran had restored operational access to most of its missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz.

Carr said Iran’s mobile missile systems remain among the most difficult military assets to destroy.

He said Iran has spent decades developing underground tunnel systems and rapid deployment tactics designed specifically for a conflict like the current one.

“You pop the launcher out, you shoot, and then it goes right back in,” he said, adding that destroying such systems would require near-constant surveillance.

– WASHINGTON WEIGHS NEXT STEPS

Miron said the Trump administration appears to lack a coherent long-term strategy while also facing growing legal and political constraints.

Under the War Powers Resolution, Congress must authorize sustained military operations after 60 days, although the Trump administration argues the requirement does not apply because it considers hostilities to have ceased May 1.

Miron said the US may be trying to gain time to reposition forces in case broader military operations become necessary.

Earlier this year, reports said Washington was preparing to deploy thousands of additional troops and military assets to the Middle East, including naval forces and Marine units, amid concerns the ceasefire could collapse.

Carr said Trump has reportedly been briefed on several military options, including renewed airstrikes, tighter naval enforcement and special operations targeting Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles.

But he argued the US president appears reluctant to restart a large-scale military campaign because of mounting economic costs, military strain and domestic political risks.

“There’s the military readiness equation where we’re continuing to burn through stockpiles of weapons that the US needs for other contingencies, particularly in the Indo-Pacific,” Carr said.

He also warned that Washington policymakers remain overly reliant on the belief that airstrikes can force political concessions.

“The US is really captivated by the seductive power of airstrikes as a form of diplomatic leverage, despite a lot of evidence that it doesn’t really work that way,” he said.

– IRAN SEEN BETTER POSITIONED FOR PROLONGED CONFLICT

Analysts say Iran may ultimately be better positioned to endure a long confrontation because of decades spent adapting to sanctions, economic hardship and asymmetric warfare.

“I suspect the Iranians may be able to endure longer,” Bregman said. “In an endurance competition, the Iranians have the upper hand.”

Miron similarly argued that Iran appears more prepared for a long conflict, particularly through its use of asymmetric tactics.

Carr said Iran’s military doctrine has long been built around surviving an initial large-scale attack.

“Think of how long Iran has been under sanctions and has had difficulty importing raw materials and maintaining foreign relations with the West,” he said. “They’ve lived under hardship for a long time.”

Even so, he said Iran’s ability to absorb sustained pressure has surprised many observers in Washington.

Bregman said Trump’s options are becoming increasingly limited.

“If he resumes bombings, the price of oil will likely rise significantly, and the bombings will achieve little in terms of changing Iranian positions,” he said.

Bregman added that Trump also risks alienating Gulf allies wary of becoming targets of Iranian retaliation if the conflict escalates again.

“On the other hand, if he accepts Iranian demands, it would be a considerable humiliation for him.”

At the same time, Bregman said allowing the situation to drag on would deepen damage to global energy markets and the world economy.

“He is stuck with an enemy — Iran — which is sophisticated, patient and resilient,” he said.