What’s the mortgage interest rate forecast for summer 2026? Here’s what some experts predict.

For much of the last year, homebuyers have been waiting for a meaningful break on mortgage rates. Instead, they’ve faced a market that seems stuck in place, with mortgage loan borrowing costs remaining high and refusing to move decisively lower for any real stretch of time. That uncertainty has, in turn, made timing a home purchase more complicated. 

For example, some prospective buyers have delayed their plans in hopes that mortgage interest rates will ease, while others have moved forward, concerned that waiting could mean higher costs down the road. At the same time, homeowners considering a refinance are facing many of the same questions about where rates may be headed next.

And, as summer gets underway, the mortgage market finds itself at another crossroads. A mix of inflation pressures, global events and changing economic conditions could influence borrowing costs in the months ahead. Whether rates hold steady, move higher or finally begin to drift lower will depend on several key factors that borrowers should be watching closely.

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Why mortgage rates could remain steady this summer, experts say

Optimal Blue’s Mortgage Market Indices, which represent about 35% of mortgage transactions, show that fixed mortgage rates averaged 6.35% and 6.31% for the months of March and April, respectively. 

“That tells us the market has found an average range, even if there’s still some volatility at play,” Joe Tyrell, CEO of Optimal Blue, says.

That average range will likely hold steady this summer, according to most of the experts we spoke with, with mortgage rates likely to remain stable in the mid-6% for the next few months.

“We anticipate mortgage rates will remain relatively stable this summer, with potential for modest fluctuations depending on inflation data and Federal Reserve guidance. While volatility is always possible, many indicators suggest we’re in a more balanced rate environment,” Bill Dawley, mortgage division manager at Amegy Bank, says.

One of those indicators is persistent inflation, which has remained high for the last few months. As of the most recent government data, the country’s inflation rate is 3.8%. That’s up from just 2.3% one year ago.

“Mortgage rates have been stuck in a higher range because inflation has not cooled off as much as the market hoped,” says Darrin Seppinni, founder of HomeLife Mortgage. “When prices stay elevated, bond investors demand higher returns — and mortgage rates follow.”

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Why mortgage rates could rise this summer, according to experts

While most expect mortgage rates to remain steady overall, there is a chance that rates could move higher this summer if certain conditions align. Continued high or rising inflation, in particular, could lead to higher mortgage rates in the coming months, for example, as these would likely push 10-year Treasury yields up. Mortgage rates tend to mirror the moves that occur in this indicator. 

“If Treasury yields continue to move higher, whether from stronger-than-expected economic data or persistent inflation, we expect to see mortgage rates follow,” Tyrell says. 

Continued geopolitical turmoil and the war in Iran could also cause a spike in mortgage rates. 

“Right now, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is causing oil prices to surge,” says Kim Zweiger, home loan specialist for Churchill Mortgage. “It’s affecting both inflation and mortgage rates.”

Why mortgage rates could fall this summer, experts say

Of course, there’s always a glimmer of hope that mortgage rates will fall, but experts say that’s less likely than the other options currently on the table. 

Cooling inflation could certainly help. If that happens, it could push the Fed to cut rates, which would eventually trickle down to mortgages. 

“The direction of inflation is the number one thing to watch,” Seppinni says. “Rates could move lower if inflation cools, the economy slows, and markets become more confident that Fed rate cuts are coming.”

The Fed’s new chairman, Kevin Warsh, could also help spur lower rates down the road, as he’s expected to be a bigger proponent of rate cuts than his predecessor. Still, the Fed only meets a few more times this year, so it could be a while before a rate cut comes to fruition. 

“If he can help shrink the Fed’s balance sheet and lower inflation, it could lead to future rate cuts, but I do not expect mortgage rates to be reduced right away,” Zweiger says.

The bottom line

It’s possible that mortgage rates rise this summer, so if you’re eyeing a home purchase or refinance, locking your rate now could be a good idea. Or, at the very least, have your documents and application ready, so you can lock as soon as the numbers work in your favor.

“The key thing for borrowers to remember is that rates are dynamic and they can move quickly in either direction. If you’re in the market, whether to purchase or refinance a home, it’s worth staying close to your lender and being ready to act when an opportunity presents itself,” Tyrell says.

You can also work on minimizing your rate as much as possible. Consider buying mortgage points, shopping around for your lender or improving your credit score. You can also negotiate with the seller (if you’re buying a home) to get a rate buydown or other concessions that can save you cash. 

“Given that we are currently in a buyers’ market, with the number of homes listed for sale continuing to rise, many sellers are offering meaningful financial incentives to attract buyers,” Dawley says. “You could use these strategically to fund either a temporary or permanent interest rate buydown.”