Critical minerals reshaping global trade as demand surges: UNCTAD

Critical minerals are reshaping global trade as demand rises for clean energy, electrification and digital technologies, the UN Trade and Development agency (UNCTAD) said on Friday.

In its June 2026 Global Trade Update, UNCTAD said copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements have become central to industrial policy, development and geopolitical competition.

The agency said these minerals are essential for electric vehicles, battery storage, renewable energy technologies, semiconductors and data centers.

Demand for lithium is projected to grow by more than 350% by 2040, while graphite demand could rise by more than 130%, according to UNCTAD.

But supply chains remain highly concentrated. The Democratic Republic of Congo accounted for 74% of global cobalt mine production in 2025, while China produced 78% of the world’s natural graphite.

Australia, Chile and China together produced more than 70% of global lithium, while China plays a dominant role in refining several critical minerals.

As demand rises and supply risks grow, governments are increasingly using trade policy to secure access to critical minerals, build domestic extraction and processing capacity, and strengthen their position in global value chains.

Since 2020, nearly 100 export-related measures have been introduced on critical minerals, including licensing requirements, export taxes and export bans, UNCTAD said.

Such policies, according to the trade body, may help mineral-producing countries support domestic processing, generate revenue and create jobs, while importers seek to diversify supply and reduce dependency.

International partnerships on critical minerals have also expanded rapidly. UNCTAD identified 73 international agreements and partnership instruments, 58 of them signed after 2022.

The agency said the trend could create opportunities for developing countries to attract investment and move up the value chain, but warned that many agreements still focus heavily on extraction.

UNCTAD also warned of the risk of a fragmented system of overlapping agreements, rules and standards as more countries compete for access to critical minerals.

Such fragmentation, it said, could raise costs, complicate investment decisions and pressure developing countries to align with one partner over another.

The agency called for a more coordinated approach to keep critical mineral trade open, predictable and development-oriented, saying the choices made now would determine whether critical minerals become a source of fragmentation or a basis for resilient global cooperation.

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