How Türkiye responds to unfolding plans in Cyprus, East Med

It appears that the Tel Aviv administration is attempting to forge a new network of alliances in tandem with the “endless war” it launched in the region, particularly in the wake of the genocide in Gaza. It is doing so by arming Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration to form a military alliance with them.

Using the war with Iran as a pretext and in serious violation of the Treaty of Lausanne, the Mitsotakis government in Greece deployed fighter jets, surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and anti-ship missiles on the Aegean Islands and in Cyprus. Furthermore, under a military agreement with France, which violates the London and Zurich Agreements, it allocated a military base for the French Navy.

The Greek Cypriot administration, on the other hand, has opened its bases to many countries, primarily Israel, against Türkiye. It has also signed a status of forces agreement (SOFA) with France, allowing the French military to permanently station itself on the island. Although the Greek Cypriots defend this as being for “humanitarian purposes,” the agreement violates the guarantee treaty signed by Türkiye, Greece and the United Kingdom in 1960.

Most recently, the “3+1” mechanism, comprising Israel, Greece, the Greek Cypriot administration and the United States, has officially announced the establishment of the Eastern Mediterranean Energy Hub as a new institutional step in its strategy to bypass Türkiye.

In response to these developments, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated, “Let no one seek adventure … If the rights and interests of Türkiye and the Turkish Cypriots in the Eastern Mediterranean are threatened, our response will be very clear and firm.”

French-Israeli-Greek alliance

Despite France being a landlocked country with no coastline in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Macron administration has been arming Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration against NATO member Türkiye. It is clear that the French government’s true motives include acquiring energy and military-political strategic interests in the Middle East, as well as maintaining access to markets for aircraft, warships and missile systems, and targeting alternative corridors to replace the lost African market.

The second and most significant wave of change, however, lies in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s aggressive policy, driven by his adventurous slogan “Türkiye is the next target after Iran,” which aims to expand the war’s front. It plans to do so specifically by forming an anti-Türkiye alliance corridor in the Mediterranean with the U.S., France, Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration, as part of the “encircling Türkiye” policy. This involves ramping up support for the Greek and Cypriot armies, including training exercises, weapons and ammunition and UAV systems, to the highest level, as well as intensifying efforts to establish military bases and purchase land in Cyprus.

On the surface, this covert plan aims to prevent Türkiye from exercising sovereignty and securing a share of the region’s abundant hydrocarbon resources in the Eastern Mediterranean’s maritime zones and airspace through the so-called “Seville Map,” which was drawn up in violation of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and international maritime law.

On the military front, since the 2010s, under the direction of NATO’s former Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) James Stravridis, the “Blue Flag” joint naval and air military exercises were conducted with the participation of the U.S., Israel, certain NATO and EU member states, and Gulf region countries. These served to rehearse scenarios for a potential armed conflict in the region.

Türkiye’s counter move

In response, Türkiye, through a calm and rational diplomatic maneuver, has established a dialogue framework with U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the Iran cease-fire. Simultaneously, it has established the “Türkiye-Egypt-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia” joint defense alliance corridor and its military exercises. Consequently, Türkiye has severed the Gulf leg of the “Blue Flag” scenario.

Second, in the Mediterranean, Türkiye has signed a joint agreement with Spain, a key member of NATO’s southern command, to produce the Hürjet fighter jet and continues negotiations for the fifth-generation Kaan fighter jet. The plan by Italy’s Leonardo company and the Italian Navy to integrate the Bayraktar TB3 UAV into the aircraft carrier Cavour through joint production demonstrates that the final word has not yet been spoken in the Mediterranean.

Furthermore, Türkiye has made extensive preparations for the 36th NATO summit to be held in Ankara, clearly demonstrating its commitment and political will to ensure the alliance emerges stronger in the face of new challenges.

Türkiye will emerge from the Ankara summit strengthened in diplomacy, military capabilities and prestige. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, referring to the Ankara summit to be held on July 7-8 and the alliance’s current state, praised Türkiye’s defense industry, stating that the summit could be even more important than The Hague and that Türkiye’s revolution in the defense industry would benefit all of NATO. He also made critical remarks, stating that new defense contracts worth tens of billions of dollars will be announced in Ankara.

In response to these developments in the Mediterranean, Türkiye has made it clear through the “Blue Homeland-26,” “Efes-2026,” “Sea Wolf,” and, most recently, the Cyprus military exercises that it will never permit such a plan, responding with the participation of 20,000 military personnel, hundreds of ships and combat aircraft.

The Cyprus “Martyr Second Lieutenant Caner Gönyeli” military exercise is essentially a concrete expression of the political and military resolve mentioned above. It has been demonstrated that Türkiye, which possesses the longest coastline in the Mediterranean, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) possess the military and political resolve to respond instantly to the worst-case scenarios in the region and to thwart all conspiracies.

In this context, Türkiye has not only deployed six F-16 fighter jets, UAVs and new missile systems in Cyprus, but it has also explicitly declared that it will keep the “Anatolian gateway” to the Mediterranean open at all times.

Ultimately, Türkiye is aware of attempts to isolate it through the lifting of the U.S. arms embargo on the Greek Cypriot administration, the signing of illegal base agreements with France, Israeli aims to contain Türkiye in the Mediterranean and Aegean, and the trap underlying strategic propaganda and engineering activities behind the “withdraw Turkish troops from Cyprus” rhetoric, all through real-time intelligence, and it has made it crystal clear that it will not allow such an adventure to happen.

It is of vital importance to remind United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Special Representative Maria Angela Holguin that, aside from a two-state solution in Cyprus, any federation plans, which are merely a different version of the Annan Plan, will be futile. Unless the TRNC is legally recognized, the sanctions unjustly imposed on the TRNC for years are lifted, and political equality and sovereign status are recognized, all the efforts will be in vain.

In conclusion, the main point of this brief article is that, at the negotiating table, any initiative other than a two-state solution will be buried in the dusty pages of history.