UN warns likelihood of ‘extreme weather events’ as El Nino set to intensify

The United Nations’ weather watchdog is warning governments and humanitarian organisations to brace for “extreme weather events” including heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall due to the El Nino weather phenomenon.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in a statement on Friday that El Nino conditions had already set in and are “forecast to strengthen rapidly” between July and September.

El Nino typically peaks between November and February.

The UN agency has activated climate information services and early warning systems to help governments and humanitarian agencies prepare support plans for farmers and vulnerable communities.

“El Nino conditions are already under way and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event – as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

“This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world.”

Saulo added that “advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities.”

El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.

El Nino events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and 12 months. Not all regions of the world are affected.

Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina – both phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – with neutral conditions in between.

Even when ENSO is neutral, extreme weather can still occur.

On Thursday, the WMO reported that global ocean temperatures hit a new high in June, partly driven by El Nino.

The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high, at about 1.55 degrees Celsius (2.79 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.