Eyes on economic data, policy signals as busy May awaits Türkiye

Markets in Türkiye are set to focus on a busy economic calendar in May, with investors closely watching a series of key data releases, central bank messages and policy signals from senior economic officials.

Attention will initially turn to Trade Minister Ömer Bolat, who is expected to announce April foreign trade figures at an event in the Black Sea province of Ordu on Saturday. Goods exports stood at $21.9 billion in March, marking a roughly $1.5 billion decline compared with a year earlier. Imports rose 8.4% to $33.2 billion.

The decline in shipments had been attributed to the Middle East conflict, the Eid al-Fitr holiday and the calendar effect.

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will release April inflation data on Monday, a key indicator for markets assessing the pace of disinflation and future monetary policy.

The Iran war sent energy prices soaring, posing a challenge for import-heavy economies like Türkiye, where inflation still eased to 30.87% in March. Month-over-month, consumer prices rose 1.94%.

Investors will also monitor March industrial production data, due on May 8, after the index rose 2.6% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year in February.

On May 13, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) will publish March balance of payments data. Türkiye posted a current account deficit of $7.5 billion in February, while the current account excluding gold and energy recorded a $1.46 billion shortfall.

Housing sales data for April will be released on May 14. Total home sales in March declined 2.1% year-over-year to 113,367 units.

The Treasury and Finance Ministry is scheduled to announce the April central government budget data on May 15. In March, the budget showed a deficit of nearly TL 223 billion. Budget revenues totaled TL 1.23 trillion, while expenditures amounted to TL 1.46 trillion.

Additional data due on May 18 include consumer confidence and first quarter labor statistics. Consumer confidence edged up 0.5% in April to 85.5.

Markets will also watch a participation finance summit to be held on May 7 at the Istanbul Financial Center.

The event is expected to feature remarks from Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) Chair Şahap Kavcıoğlu, Investment and Finance Office President Burak Dağlıoğlu and Participation Banks Association of Türkiye Chair Mehmet Ali Akben.

Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek is also scheduled to speak in a special session.

Meanwhile, CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan will brief lawmakers at Parliament’s Planning and Budget Committee on May 5, with interest rates and inflation-fighting policies expected to dominate the agenda.

Karahan is set to unveil the central bank’s second inflation report of the year on May 14, a closely watched event that could provide fresh guidance on the inflation outlook, growth risks and the monetary policy path.

The CBRT in February kept its end-2026 interim inflation target at 16% but lifted its forecast range to 15%-21% from 13%-19% previously.

The central bank will conclude the month’s key releases with its Financial Stability Report on May 22, offering markets another readout on risks facing Türkiye’s financial system.

DAILYSABAH