Where do China and Pakistan stand in the Israel-US-Iran conflict?

Western states have not only lost ground in many areas but have also, to a significant extent, lost their position in diplomacy and in creating platforms for peace.

If we look back some 50 years, nearly all major conflict resolutions and diplomatic gatherings took place in cities such as Geneva, Berlin, Paris, London or Ottawa. Today, however, such meetings are increasingly being held in Istanbul, Islamabad or Doha. Meanwhile, Washington continues to play the role of a party that fuels conflict.

Some commentators have portrayed the U.S. strike on Iran not as a provocation driven by Israel but as a masterfully designed strategy. Yet, such claims now appear to be confined largely to conspiracy theorists. The attack on Iran does not resemble a carefully planned operation that would strengthen the U.S. while weakening China.

There is a Chinese proverb often cited: The lion leans against the mountain and watches the bears fight. Although in global symbolism the bear often represents Russia, this is not the intent here. The saying suggests that once both sides are exhausted, the lion descends into the scene.

According to conspiracy theories, such grand designs should be orchestrated by the U.S. However, it appears that declining empires lose not only power but also the capacity for such intricate planning.

Emergence of Pakistan

In the Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict, Pakistan has emerged prominently, actively engaging in mediation efforts. In one of his statements, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif noted: “As we conduct these negotiations, we remain in contact with Türkiye, China, and our friends in the Gulf” – a clear reference to Saudi Arabia.

While Pakistan appears to be leading the diplomacy at the negotiating table, it is also evident that other states periodically step in. Gulf countries, being directly affected by the war and their own future prospects, are central to the process. Türkiye, Russia, China, and others are also likely involved in shaping the outcome.

In past years, during a ten-day visit to China, organized at the invitation of think tanks, one question stood out in my mind: who are China’s allies? Chinese officials acknowledged past border issues with Russia. Still, they noted that the two communist states had managed to resolve their differences with each other. Relations with India, however, remain far from harmonious.

Ultimately, after various discussions and observations, it became clear that China’s only significant ally in the region is, in effect, Pakistan. Pakistan’s geographical proximity to both China and Iran provides a strong foundation for this partnership. At the same time, this position has elevated Pakistan’s strategic importance.

In a brief conflict with India, Pakistan demonstrated unexpected military effectiveness. Its air force capabilities, pilot training, and operational execution – combined with Chinese technology – enabled it to achieve notable success against a country many times its size. This success also highlights Pakistan’s unique position: while much of its military training has Western roots, it has integrated emerging Chinese technologies into its own defence infrastructure.

Expanding alliance network

Pakistan maintains strong ties with the West while also being closely aligned with China, resulting in an increasingly broad and complex network of alliances.

As is known, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed a mutual security agreement resembling NATO’s Article 5, whereby an attack on one is considered an attack on the other.

At the same time, Türkiye, Pakistan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are exploring a shared vision for the future. This should be understood as a sophisticated form of rapprochement – one that does not immediately centre on security or military coordination, but rather on long-term strategic alignment. The fact that the foreign ministers of these four countries meet periodically to discuss a future perspective is noteworthy.

Thus, while the war continues and its true target remains open to debate, it is evident that Gulf countries have suffered the most immediate damage. Israel, which has sought to dominate and suppress opposition, has also seen its ambitions curtailed.

Winners and losers

When the war eventually ends, Pakistan is likely to emerge as a diplomatic winner. China, through its patient stance and support for Iran, will also be among the beneficiaries. While the Gulf faces economic disruption, Israel may find itself among the losers. A state trapped in a cycle of conflict and reliant on force risks turning that violence inward. History shows that violence alone cannot sustain a nation’s strength.

Politics, when unable to produce values or solutions, often turns to violence as a last resort. In this sense, imposing order through force has increasingly become a defining feature of Israeli policy. Yet, it appears that Jewish communities worldwide may also bear the consequences of this cycle.

Eventually, it is those countries that have remained outside the conflict that are likely to emerge stronger. Among the probable winners of this war are Pakistan, China and Türkiye.