Toronto Maple Leafs defy slim odds to win the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery

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The Toronto Maple Leafs caught a franchise-changing break on Tuesday, defying the odds to jump from fifth to the No. 1 overall pick in the NHL Draft Lottery.

Coming into the selection ceremony with just an 8.5 percent chance, Toronto vaulted past multiple teams to nab the top selection, which hasn’t happened since 2016.

The outcome gives Toronto a rare opportunity to add a blue-chip asset without sacrificing current roster pieces.

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This stroke of luck follows a disastrous regular season in which the Maple Leafs finished 32-36-14, placing eighth in the Atlantic Division, which marked a 30-point drop from the previous year and led to their first missed postseason since 2016.

The season was defined by turmoil, including a season-ending injury to captain Auston Matthews and 299 goals allowed, one of the league’s worst defensive marks.

Mats Sundin, Keith Pelley, and John Chayka posing at a press conference in Toronto

The focus now turns to projected top pick Gavin McKenna. The dynamic Penn State left wing finished second in the NCAA in points per game. For a team that has struggled with depth scoring and cap constraints, drafting a player of McKenna’s caliber signals a clear path to strengthening the roster for the long term.

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The lottery result also pulled Toronto away from a potential asset-management misstep tied to previous trades.

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By staying within the top five, the Maple Leafs triggered the protection clause on the first-round pick sent to the Boston Bruins in the Brandon Carlo deal.

Had the pick slipped outside that range, it would have gone to a division rival. Instead, Toronto keeps the No. 1 selection.