Cubs’ road woes meet the Braves’ home dominance in a marquee baseball matchup

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Baseball is one of those sports that I don’t think the majority of people will watch just any two teams play.

For example, if you’re not a fan of the Colorado Rockies and the Miami Marlins, are you going to flip them on during a random Tuesday night? Sports betting helps us have added interest in games. There is no need for added interest in tonight’s game between two of the best teams in baseball, but I’m going to bet on it anyway.

The Chicago Cubs are 27-14 for the season, but they have a clear flaw of playing poorly away from Wrigley Field. They are just 9-9 for the season when they wear the road grays. They have scored just 91 runs on the road and are hitting just .238. At home, they’ve scored 124 runs and are hitting .263. That’s a sizable difference in a reasonable number of games to compare. Only about 41% of their total runs have come on the road. They just lost a series to the Rangers and were shut out in the final two games of the series.

Atlanta Braves' Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies celebrating on baseball field

They obviously need to get the offense back on track, but they also need to worry about stopping their opponent. Colin Rea is the arm they rely on tonight for that effort. Rea is 4-1 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. Like the offense, Rea has been worse on the road compared to at home. He has made two starts and four total appearances on the road, giving up 11 earned runs in 17.2 innings. Most of that was a bad start against the Dodgers when he went 3.1 innings and allowed six hits, four walks and six earned runs. Braves hitters are batting .286 against Rea with Matt Olson going 4-for-8 against him with three extra-base hits.

The Atlanta Braves have had a remarkable turnaround since last season. It should’ve been somewhat expected, because last year was mostly the result of the team being injured at virtually every position. They have one of the best records in baseball and have done it both on the road and at home. They are 28-13 overall, and they are 12-6 at home. The Braves are hitting .270 overall, and they are hitting .282 at home this season.

Ronald Acuna Jr. stealing a base at Truist Park in Atlanta

Their pitching has been equally impressive, throwing to a combined 3.14 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Tonight’s starter is Grant Holmes, who is not exactly the best starter the team has. He is 2-1 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He has actually been worse at home than he has been on the road this year, with a 5.40 home ERA. He only has three home starts, and none of them have seen him allow more than three earned runs, so the numbers look a bit worse than they are. Holmes has only faced two Cubs hitters, and they are a combined 3-for-7 against him.

On the one hand, we have two teams that are better on offense than they are on the mound. The problem is that the Cubs haven’t scored in either of their past two games. Maybe they needed yesterday’s day off to regroup. I think the under is probably the right way to go, but I think you’re going to sweat this either way.

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Atlanta Braves' Matt Olson hitting a baseball during a game against the New York Mets

I’m going to back the Braves in this one. Though these teams are both similar in record, there is a big disparity in performance on the road for the Cubs, vs. the home performance of the Braves. I’m going to take Atlanta at -121. I’ll take a shot on Matt Olson 2+ hits at +202 (his 2+ total bases are -102).

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For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024

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