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If you aren’t jacked up for the 2026 Western Conference Finals, the NBA just ain’t for you. It features the two best teams in the Association, with the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder hosting the San Antonio Spurs for Game 1 Monday.
Led by back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City swept through the first two rounds of the 2026 NBA Playoffs, ending the Phoenix Suns’ and Los Angeles Lakers’ seasons. Thunder All-Star wing Jalen Williams returns from a six-game injury hiatus for this series.
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The Spurs have lost only three times so far this postseason, but they didn’t have Victor Wembanyama in two of those losses. It took San Antonio five games to eliminate the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round and six to get past the Minnesota Timberwolves in the conference semifinals.
Let’s discuss whether Wemby is ready to bring the Spurs to the NBA Finals in their first season as a title contender, or if Shai and OKC’s championship core and continuity are too much to overcome. By “discuss,” of course, I mean make some bets.
Series Winner
- Oklahoma City (-260)
- SAN ANTONIO (+210)
Series Spread
- Thunder -1.5 games (-110)
- SPURS +1.5 GAMES (-110)
As you can see in my blurb for OutKick’s newsletter above, San Antonio owned OKC in the regular season and NBA Cup. You can’t pooh-pooh those results either because the Thunder had Shai, Williams and big Chet Holmgren for three of their four losses to the Spurs this season.
Also, San Antonio has been essentially unbeatable with Wembanyama on the floor. According to The Ringer’s Zach Lowe on “The Bill Simmons Podcast,” the Spurs are 37-3 when Wemby plays at least 15 minutes since February 1.
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San Antonio’s size is the main reason it has betting value in this series. Spurs wings Stephon Castle and Julian Champagnie can defend Gilgeous-Alexander on the perimeter and it’s harder for him to operate in the mid-range with Wembanyamaprotecting the paint.
Think about it: Shai drives into the paint, uses his off-arm to get a makeable look. But San Antonio’s wings are long and athletic enough to contest those shots and he is driving into Wemby’s turf.
Furthermore, the Spurs negate two of Oklahoma City’s strengths: Getting to the foul line and forcing turnovers. San Antonio led the NBA in defensive FT/FGA rate during the regular season and ranked fifth in offensive turnover rate.
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We are getting a great price on the Spurs in this series because they don’t have playoff experience. Yet, that doesn’t matter since San Antonio put the right pieces around the best basketball player ever and matches up perfectly with OKC.
For the record, the way I’m betting the Western Conference Finals is to risk three-fourths of my bet on the Spurs +1.5 series games (-110) and the other quarter-unit on San Antonio to win the series (+210).
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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.
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