Trump heads into cabinet talks as fragile Iran deal faces doubts

President Donald Trump is set to meet with his Cabinet on Wednesday at a delicate stage in negotiations aimed at ending the war with Iran, days after claiming that his administration and Tehran had “largely negotiated” a settlement, even as talks remain fluid and unresolved.

Heading into the meeting with senior advisers, Trump is projecting confidence that a deal is within reach. Such an agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow him to argue that Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been sufficiently degraded to declare victory, effectively drawing down a conflict that has proved politically unpopular among Republicans.

Yet even as momentum builds, the risk of an unsatisfying conclusion looms large. The emerging framework appears to defer several key issues to future negotiations and has drawn sharp criticism, including from within Trump’s own political base, over concerns that Iran’s leadership could emerge weakened but ultimately emboldened.

The stakes are rising as the midterm elections approach, with control of Congress in play and Republican anxieties growing that higher costs and fuel prices could further sour public sentiment.

Talks were further complicated after U.S. forces carried out what the Pentagon called “defensive” strikes on missile launch sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran on Monday. The U.S. said it acted with restraint in light of the weekslong cease-fire, while Iran decried the action as a sign of “bad faith and unreliability.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that talks with Iran on reopening the strait and extending the cease-fire, a period the administration says could be used to hash out the finer details of a nuclear agreement, will take several more days. “He’s either going to make a good deal or no deal,” Rubio told reporters.

Trump took to social media on Tuesday to grumble that even if Tehran were to offer a complete surrender, the media would portray the end of the conflict as Iran scoring “a masterful and brilliant victory.”

While Trump insists a deal is within reach, there appears to be daylight between the U.S. and Iran on several key issues. The president is also facing scrutiny from Republican allies, including Sens. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Ted Cruz of Texas, who have said the terms appear too favorable to Tehran.

They are balking at aspects of the deal that have emerged publicly and say it too closely resembles the nuclear agreement reached with Iran under Democratic President Barack Obama, which Trump scrapped during his first term.

Under the potential deal, Tehran would agree to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, a key Trump demand, in return for sanctions relief, according to two regional officials and one senior Trump administration official, all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations.

One regional official with direct knowledge of the negotiations said how Iran would give up the uranium would be subject to further talks during 60 days. Some would likely be diluted, while the rest would be transferred to a third country, the official said.

Iran has 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60% purity, a short technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran has not publicly committed to giving up its uranium.

Trump said Monday in a Truth Social post that the material, which is believed to be buried under nuclear sites battered by U.S. airstrikes last year, would either be turned over to the U.S. or “destroyed in place or, at another acceptable location, with the Atomic Energy Commission, or its equivalent, witnessing this process and event.” The comment signals a softening of Trump’s earlier insistence that the U.S. take control of Iran’s uranium stockpile.

Another unresolved issue is whether the cease-fire would also cover Israel’s operations against Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group in Lebanon. Iran has insisted that Lebanon must be included in any cease-fire agreement negotiated with the United States.

The administration appears to leave some flexibility on the Lebanon question. The emerging memorandum of understanding calls for a cease-fire between the U.S. and its allies against Iran and its proxies, such as Hezbollah, but also underscores Israel’s right to act against imminent threats and in self-defense.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday announced that the Israeli military is “deepening its operation” in Lebanon.

Jonathan Conricus, a former spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces, said Israel expects Iran to quickly direct any sanctions relief toward restoring its military capabilities and strengthening groups, including Hezbollah and Hamas in Gaza.

“We’re not done fighting, because the Iranian regime isn’t done,” said Conricus, now a senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank.

Trump said Monday that any agreement to end the conflict should include a requirement for several additional countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Pakistan, to join the Abraham Accords, the U.S.-brokered agreements from his first term aimed at normalizing relations with Israel.

Trump’s optimism that additional Middle Eastern and majority Muslim countries could soon sign on to the accords may be overly ambitious.

Saudi Arabia, the most significant power in the Arab world and long seen as the key prize for normalization, has insisted that a guaranteed path to a Palestinian state remain a precondition, a position Israel strongly opposes.

Trump raised the Abraham Accords push during a call with regional leaders over the weekend.

Barbara Leaf, a retired U.S. ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and senior State Department official during President Joe Biden’s administration, said officials from Gulf countries who were on the call told her that Trump’s pitch was met with “stunned silence.” A person familiar with the call disputed that characterization and spoke on the condition of anonymity about the private conversation.

Leaf, a distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute, said U.S. allies in the region recognize that Iran is likely to use any sanctions relief to bolster its military capabilities, yet many still support Trump’s effort to end the conflict.

“They see no other way out,” Leaf said of U.S. allies in the region. “And they see no other way out because of many of these early mistakes that the president and the administration made in conducting the war.”

DAILYSABAH