WNBA betting preview: Why the Sparks-Mystics total is the play with Kelsey Plum sidelined tonight

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Lost in the shuffle of the NHL and NBA Playoffs, and MLB labor talks is the fact that the WNBA has started its season and games are in full swing. We still don’t have most teams done with a quarter of their season, so it is still early, but we are starting to see some of the teams take shape. I love the league and basketball, so betting on the WNBA is one of my favorite things. Tonight, we do it as the Sparks play the Mystics.

The Los Angeles Sparks are a team that has a lot of potential, but haven’t looked great through six games this season. The team, led by Kelsey Plum, is looking to capitalize on its scoring superstar. In basketball, it is very common to succeed if you have one really good player and surround him or her with decent talent. The problem is that Plum will be out due to an ankle injury. That means if they only have decent talent around her, someone needs to step up.

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The candidates for improved performance over the next few games are Dearica Hamby and Nneka Ogwumike. Both are already averaging 15 or more points this season. I also should mention that both are probably better than “decent” players. They are strong contributors who make a difference on every team. Someone like Cameron Brink or maybe Ariel Atkins will get more opportunities without Plum on the floor.

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The Washington Mystics are still trying to figure it out. They have some good pieces, but they don’t really have everything they need to be true competitors. I’d actually be fairly surprised if they make the postseason. As of right now, they are 3-3 with some inconsistent games. It is still early, so I don’t want to put too much judgment on this team or what they could be. But, I’d classify the Mystics as rebuilding or at least building, compared to the Sparks, who are more championship hopefuls.

The main building block of this team is Sonia Citron. She was the third overall pick last year and had a great rookie campaign. She is building off of that this year with 17.2 points per game, 3.8 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game. If they can keep her, she will be the face of the franchise for multiple years. She has had a couple of tough games this season, but the team split those two games. So they are capable of winning despite her struggles, which is a good sign for their future.

In tonight’s game, the Sparks probably have the better overall roster. However, without Plum, I think there are reasons to question how efficient they will be. Plum is a dominant ball-handler who is probably classified as a shoot-first point guard. They should still have the talent to score, but it could have some challenges.

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Washington Mystics guard Sonia Citron celebrating during a basketball game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse

The total dropped quite a bit from the opener after Plum was announced out. However, this Sparks team is playing very little defense this season. The Mystics aren’t that much better. Combined, they are averaging 182.3 points per game allowed. I expect Citron to bounce back after a bad game, and I think the Sparks will be fine getting to 75+ points without Plum. Give me the over 165.5.

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For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024

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