Between returning to Syria and staying in Türkiye

According to data from the Presidency of Migration Management (PMM), the number of Syrians under temporary protection in Türkiye was 14,237 in 2012. This number reached 1.5 million in 2014 and peaked at 3.7 million in 2021. However, with the return process that began after Dec.8, 2024, this number has started to decrease. According to the latest figures in 2026, the number of Syrians under temporary protection has fallen to 2.2 million. Despite this, according to data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Türkiye is still the country hosting the largest number of Syrians.

There are also Syrians who entered Türkiye illegally. Türkiye has been resolutely fighting this group from day one. According to PMM data, 23,469 Syrian irregular migrants were apprehended in 2021, 45,909 in 2022, 58,621 in 2023, 50,641 in 2024, 22,515 in 2025, and 7,024 in the first five months of 2026. Consequently, Türkiye protects Syrians who have sought refuge legally, while not allowing those who enter the country illegally to pass through.

According to PMM data, the number of Syrians who have returned from Türkiye since 2016 is 1.4 million. This means that nearly 40% of the peak Syrian population in Türkiye in 2021 has returned to Syria. Specifically, the number of those who voluntarily returned after Dec. 8, 2024, is 667,565. If the current political atmosphere in Syria is maintained, it is expected that another 200,000-250,000 Syrians will leave Türkiye and return to their country by the end of this year.

Türkiye, under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and within the framework of the government’s resolve, is carrying out the return of Syrians based on the principle of “voluntary, safe, dignified and orderly return.” In other words, contrary to the populist demands of those who use anti-Syrian rhetoric as an instrument, Türkiye has no intention of forcibly sending any Syrians back to their country en masse. Indeed, Erdoğan’s words most clearly reflect the government’s approach on this issue: “We will not make the mistake of forcibly sending anyone back. We will continue to support our Syrian brothers and sisters who wish to contribute to our country.”

Factors behind returns

As a researcher who lived for many years in Esenyurt, a district in Istanbul with a high concentration of Syrians, and had close contact with this community, I can confidently say that the vast majority of Syrians already had a desire to return to their homeland. For this desire to translate into actual return, the establishment of public order and security in Syria was necessary. Currently, it appears that public order and security have been largely re-established in many parts of Syria. Consequently, the main problem regarding return has been largely resolved. Syrians have already begun returning to their country in an environment where the war has ended, their security conditions have relatively improved, and daily life has returned to normal.

In addition to security factors, economic factors also play a decisive role in the return process. The ability of people to sustain their daily lives, along with factors such as housing conditions, job opportunities, local government services, and the vibrancy of the economy in the regions they plan to return to, directly influences their decisions to return. In other words, people want to establish a livable life when they return to their country.

The current Damascus administration is also encouraging the return of Syrians who fled the country due to the war to accelerate the reconstruction process. However, for returns to be sustainable and on a massive scale, it depends not only on political will but also on the permanent establishment of security conditions and the fulfillment of the basic needs of the returning population, such as housing, health, education and employment. The faster these expectations are met, the faster the return process of Syrians will proceed.

Furthermore, it is important not to overlook the fact that some Syrians have been living in Türkiye for a long time and have integrated into Turkish society to some extent. There is a large group of them who have established businesses, entered the workforce, married, formed social networks, and sent their children to school in Türkiye. Therefore, the course of the return process depends on the quality of social and economic life in Türkiye.

Voluntary, safe, dignified return

In the matter of sending Syrians back, it is necessary not to disregard fundamental principles of international law. As is known, Türkiye is among the countries that are parties to the 1951 Geneva Convention on the Status of Refugees. The principle of “non-refoulement” in the convention prohibits the forced return of people to areas where their lives or freedoms are at risk. This principle, which has become part of international customary law, concerns all foreigners who may face the risk of human rights violations. In addition to the convention, Article 4 of the Law No. 6458 on Foreigners and International Protection, which has been in force since 2013, also prohibits the return of those who have sought refuge in Türkiye. Therefore, the mass and forced return of Syrians would raise serious legal concerns. For this reason, as mentioned above, Türkiye is striving for the voluntary return of Syrians to their country.

If the political and institutional transition in Syria becomes permanent, it is possible for the readmission agreement signed between Türkiye and Syria in 2001 to become operational again. For this to happen, the legal framework of the temporary protection regime in Türkiye needs to be restructured. Currently, as explained above, the mass repatriation of Syrians under temporary protection is not legally feasible. However, if the temporary protection status is gradually terminated or its scope is narrowed, some Syrians remaining in Türkiye may fall into the category of irregular migrants. In this case, reactivating the readmission mechanism and creating the legal infrastructure for the return of Syrians who have become irregular migrants to their country could theoretically become possible.

Syrian workforce needs

It is incorrect to assume that all Syrians in Türkiye will return for two reasons. First, some Syrians have already obtained Turkish citizenship. Contrary to disinformation campaigns claiming that “millions of Syrians have been granted citizenship,” the latest data from the Ministry of the Interior indicate that 238,768 Syrians have obtained Turkish citizenship while under temporary protection. Therefore, there is no legal obstacle preventing approximately 250,000 Syrians from remaining in Türkiye.

Second, there is a genuine need for Syrian labor in certain sectors in Türkiye. Syrians employed in the textile, construction, agriculture and low-cost manufacturing sectors, in particular, have become a factor that partially compensates for the shortage of low-skilled and semi-skilled labor that has existed in the labor market for many years. Indeed, some business representatives and sectoral organizations have explicitly stated that the sudden and mass departure of Syrians from the country could increase production costs, deepen the skilled labor crisis, and create labor shortages in certain areas. Given this reality, there is no logic in evaluating the situation of Syrians in Türkiye solely through the lens of migration and security or as a simple dichotomy of “they should leave” versus “they should stay.”