When could homeowners realistically expect to refinance? 4 lending experts weigh in

The mortgage rate landscape has been a rollercoaster for borrowers recently, particularly over the last few months. After sitting in the mid- to upper-6% range for much of 2025, mortgage rates started to improve late in the year, even falling below 5%, albeit briefly, in early 2026. At that point, mortgage rates dropped to the lowest level we’d seen in nearly four years. That mortgage rate progress has all but been erased now, though. 

With inflation high and now climbing, the Federal Reserve rate cuts borrowers were hoping for this year have not yet materialized. In turn, borrowers are seeing rates solidly in the mid-6% range — about where they’ve hovered for the larger portion of the last two years. The change has certainly sidelined many potential borrowers who were hoping to buy a home this year, and they have also been a deterrent for existing homeowners who want to refinance their current mortgage loans. 

Will that high-rate trend continue, though? Or do homeowners have a shot at lowering their rates by refinancing their mortgage loans in the near future? 

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When could homeowners realistically expect to refinance? 4 lending experts weigh in

Hoping to refinance your mortgage loan and lock in a lower rate? Here’s what four pros had to say about when the opportunity could arise.

Refinancing could be smart now if your rate is 7% or higher

If you’ve got a mortgage rate of 7% or higher right now, then refinancing at today’s rates could offer at least a half-point reduction in your interest rate. And that, in turn, could result in some real savings, both on your monthly mortgage payment and your long-term mortgage loan interest costs.

“There are already refinancing opportunities for some homeowners, particularly those who obtained mortgages between August and December 2023, when rates were much higher than they are today,” says Joe Magallanes, senior vice president of lending at CrossCountry Mortgage.

For example, a $300,000 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loan with a 7% interest rate would come with a payment of about $1,996 and would equate to over $418,000 in total interest costs over the life of the loan. Refinancing to today’s 6.5% rate would cut your payment by $100 and lower the total interest costs by about $16,000. 

And, in certain cases, the savings could be even more significant, as your loan balance may be lower than it was compared to when you initially borrowed.

“It all depends on the homeowner’s current rate,” says Darrin Seppinni, president of HomeLife Mortgage. “Someone in the 7% range may benefit sooner, while borrowers with very low pandemic-era rates will likely need a much bigger drop.”

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Refinancing makes less sense if your rate is in the low 6% range (or lower)

If your current mortgage rate is in the low 6% range or lower, today’s mortgage rates probably aren’t ideal for refinancing. In fact, it may be a while until rates drop enough to make refinancing worth it in terms of your mortgage loan. 

“The good news is that rates don’t need to fall all the way back to 3% or 4% to create refinance opportunities,” says Romina Zamanpour, a loan officer and director of product operations at loandepot. “With more than 20% of homeowners with mortgages holding rates above 6% at the end of last year, even a move back into the low-6% or high-5% range could get some borrowers to take another look at refinancing.”

Right now, it’s unlikely that rates in that range will surface in 2026. Fannie Mae’s most recent forecast expects 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loan rates to end the year at about 6.4%, while the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts a slightly higher rate at 6.5%. Neither predicts that mortgage rates will drop below 6% in the next two years, either.

“There is no way to know when the next meaningful refinancing opportunity will arrive,” says Michael Brown, home loan specialist for Churchill Mortgage. “Most industry experts and economists predict rates will gradually decline over the next 12 to 24 months, but don’t expect this to be a smooth, downward trend. There are many economic factors that will affect the future direction of interest rates, inflation being chief among them.”

Refinancing makes sense any time if the numbers work or you need cash

While refinancing can make sense for some right now, and while others may want to wait, the reality is that there’s no hard-and-fast rate reduction required for a refinance to work. Ultimately, even a slightly lower mortgage rate can make a big difference in costs, particularly for larger loan amounts. It also depends on your budget and financial needs, so it’s important to take those factors into account as well.

“Every borrower’s situation is different, so there’s no one-size-fits-all formula,” Zamanpour says. “A $70 monthly savings may not feel meaningful to one homeowner, but for another household, it could make a real difference. The key is understanding what is financially impactful for your situation.”

The right refinancing decision doesn’t always come down to just rates, either. There are other reasons you might want to refinance, aside from snagging a big rate reduction.

“A refinance can still make sense today if it solves a specific problem,” Seppinni says.

For example, you may need to reduce your monthly payment for cash-flow reasons, which can be done by refinancing into a longer loan term. Or, you might need to take cash out of your home equity to cover a big home repair or pay off higher-rate debts, like credit cards. In these situations, refinancing might make sense now, even at today’s elevated interest rates. 

“Credit card rates are typically much higher than mortgage rates, so using home equity to pay off debt can reduce monthly payments and potentially save on interest over time,” Magallanes says. 

You may also want to refinance if you have an adjustable-rate loan and are approaching the point where your rate can increase. Or, you may want to refinance to remove private mortgage insurance, as those premiums can substantially increase your monthly mortgage payment. 

“Waiting for a major drop may not always be the best strategy if refinancing already creates a clear financial benefit for you,” Zamanpour says. “Whether you’re looking to lower your monthly payment, access equity, or consolidate debt, it can make sense to move forward, especially since there may be an opportunity to refinance at a lower rate in the future if rates come down.”

The bottom line

The right time to refinance is different for everyone, and depending on your goals, opting for other financial products could be a better move. Home equity loans or home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), for example, can be alternatives to cash-out refinancing if you’re trying to tap into your home’s equity.

“Refinancing isn’t the only way to access equity,” Zamanpour says. “If you already have a very low mortgage rate, options like a home equity loan or HELOC may allow you to tap into your equity without changing your existing mortgage. That means you can preserve your current mortgage rate while still accessing the funds you need.”