Back Toronto Blue Jays Dylan Cease against Logan Webb in a low-scoring Giants pitching matchup

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We escaped with a win yesterday as the Miami Marlins pulled off the victory in extra innings. It was a bit of a frustrating one because the Marlins were winning 4-2 after five innings, and then the bullpen allowed three earned runs in the top of the eighth. The Marlins came right back and tied it up before winning in 10 innings.

It would’ve been nice to not have to sweat, but I won’t complain about a win. We are flying across the country to take on a different series.

The Toronto Blue Jays are a team that I’ve discussed quite a bit this year. Before the season began, my biggest question was how they would respond to the adversity of losing a heartbreaking World Series. It is hard enough to just get to the playoffs, and now they are fighting to get back there.

Blue Jays pitcher Dylan Cease pitches to the Texas Rangers

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Last year they were one of the best teams in baseball, and, at least on paper, they should’ve been better. At 43-49, there is a lot of work to be done for Toronto this season. Sometimes it seems like the issue is their pitching staff, but their team is 12th in the Majors in ERA. Their batting average is 17th, but they are 27th in runs scored, so my guess is they are getting opportunities, but not cashing in.

It can be hard to pitch with limited run support. However, one of their offseason additions who have made an impact this year has done a good job of it. Today, Dylan Cease takes the mound, and he brings a 5-4 record, 2.79 ERA, and a 1.18 WHIP. He turned in one of his best performances of the season in his last outing. He went seven strong innings, allowing just three hits, while striking out nine. We’ve known it for a long time — when Cease is on, he is elite. But there are times when he can’t find the zone and falls apart. He has faced the Giants a bunch of times during his time with San Francisco. They are 21-for-82 against him, but no one with more than 10 at-bats is batting over .300.

The San Francisco Giants are a team that is one to watch around the trade deadline. I really like their lineup, but for whatever reason, it just hasn’t clicked for them. They are only slightly ahead of the Blue Jays in terms of runs scored this year. Their pitching staff, however, has been only 22nd in the league. I’m sure there are a ton of teams out there looking to add pitching to their roster, but there are a few arms on the Giants that you’d really aggressively pursue. The bats might be on the move, but that’s only if the Giants decide it is time to try a rebuild of sorts.

San Francisco Giants pitcher Logan Webb pitches

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The one person who would bring the biggest return, should he be listed as an option, is today’s starter, Logan Webb. I haven’t even heard rumors that they are considering it, but he might be the most coveted starter outside Tarik Skubal if available. Webb has been solid once again this season, going 5-6 for the year, with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Webb has been slightly better at home with a 3.33 ERA and has been fantastic during the day with a 1.70 ERA. He was absolutely rocked in his last outing, but it was in Coors Field, so it is a bit difficult to know how much of that was poor mechanics versus the environment. Blue Jays hitters have done well against Webb with a .333 batting average over 51 at-bats.

This should be one of the best pitching matchups on the slate for today. That usually means low scoring is in store. These two starters are both capable of throwing complete-game shutouts or going at least seven innings with few runs allowed. The listed total also indicates the books feel that way as well. Couple that with the two teams not scoring a ton of runs. The under makes a lot of sense, but there is little room for error.

John Schneider walking back to dugout during spring training game.

Instead, I think the Blue Jays are the play today. Cease has been very strong lately, and I think that his success against the Giants in the past should help. Webb has been solid against the Blue Jays, but they’ve been a bit more consistent against him, and in a tight game like this, I will back the Blue Jays to get the win.

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