Bryce Harper is the top pick to win the 2026 Home Run Derby in his home ballpark at +800

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This is one of the slowest sports weeks of the entire year, but that doesn’t mean we have nothing to bet on! There are still WNBA games, there is the All-Star Game, and there is tonight’s Home Run Derby. Plus, we can start looking at the NFL season, which starts just about two months from now. Let’s get to how we can bet on tonight’s Home Run Derby and where we can make some cash.

The Rules

This year the MLB is doing something different. Not only will the Derby be on Netflix, but to keep things moving, the most homers anyone can hit in a round is 20 (kind of). That’s because they only get 20 swings in Round 1, and 15 in Round 2 and the Final round. If you homer on your last swing, you go until you don’t hit a homer. It should speed things up a bit.

BRYCE HARPER RESPONDS TO VULGAR CHANTS FROM NATIONAL FANS WITH A HOME RUN AND A GESTURE DURING HIS TROT

Kyle Schwarber hitting a home run at Citizens Bank Park

Kyle Schwarber, 32 homers

Schwarber is a masher and currently leads the league in home runs. Schwarber has a lot of reasons to like him tonight. He has competed in the Derby before, and he is playing in his home stadium. Honestly, he is one of my favorite players of all time, so it is hard for me to get over my bias, but you could do worse than betting on him at +300 to win. However, I do have some concerns he can’t get going right away.

Junior Caminero, 28 homers

This man finished second in the Derby last year and looks to try and get the crown this year. He has power to spare, but I feel like if anyone will swing and miss in this contest, it is Caminero. He is at +425, but I won’t put money on him as I prefer people who are more familiar with the ballpark.

Chicago White Sox's Munetaka Murakami celebrating a home run during a baseball game in Phoenix

Munetaka Murakami, 20 homers

He certainly has pop and is part of the reason the White Sox are successful this year, but he is also coming back from injury. I would stay away from him. For the record, he has competed in Japanese derbies in the past, but never won.

Jac Caglianone, 15 homers

He’s a youngster, so he might have the energy for the contest, but I think his odds should be higher. He is +700 in the contest and has just 15 homers this season. I also don’t think he will be overly familiar with the batter’s eye here, so it might be a struggle at first. I’m not touching him.

Jordan Walker, 22 homers

I think this is my favorite underdog in the tournament. His metrics show that he is hitting the ball hard when he makes contact, and with 20 swings, he may have all the energy needed to consistently hit with pop. He is in this for the first time, but I think that matters more when you’re on a time limit instead of swings. He could be looking to make a name for himself. Give me a small share of Walker at +800.

Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper celebrating after hitting a home run at Nationals Park.

Bryce Harper, 20 homers

A former winner: check. Playing in his home ballpark: check. A guy who has pop: check. A dude who loves big moments: double-check. I’m quite surprised Harper isn’t at worse odds. He is my official pick to win it, and I’ll put a full bet on him at +800. (Note: this is an exhibition thing, so a “full bet” is never the amount of a normal game for me.)

Ben Rice, 29 homers

This guy is having a great season and can certainly find his fair share of balls going over the fence. I really don’t have a great justification for not picking Rice. You can make the same case for him as Jordan Walker, but I just don’t prefer him. Not great analysis, just the truth.

Fenway fireworks! Willson Contreras crushes a first-inning home run to put the Red Sox ahead. (Photo by Natalie Reid/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Willson Contreras, 20 homers

No one in this field has had a more interesting season than Contreras. This will be his first Home Run Derby, and I do tend to shy away from new guys a bit. However, as mentioned, this new format should be fine for him. He may be doing this for Venezuela or to get people to see something positive about him after some craziness over the past few weeks. At +1400 he is more of a line drive hitter, but he can blast homers, so he is the hardest person for me to handicap here.

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Give me Harper to win at +800, and I’ll take another half of a unit and split it on Walker and Contreras. I also like Harper to make the Semi-Finals at -115.

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For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024

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