Türkiye records strongest heat waves in 75 years: Study

Heat waves across Türkiye have grown significantly more frequent and intense over the past 75 years, with the summers of 2023 and 2025 emerging as the country’s most severe on record, according to a new study by researchers at Istanbul Technical University (ITU).

Presented at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) conference, the study examined heat wave patterns across Türkiye between 1950 and 2025 using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId), an indicator that measures the intensity of extreme heat based on daily maximum temperatures.

The findings reveal a sharp increase in both the frequency and severity of heat waves.

Average summer temperatures, which ranged between 22-23 degrees Celsius (72-73 degrees Fahrenheit) from 1970 to 1990, rose to 24-25 degrees Celsius after warming accelerated in the early 2000s. The average summer temperature reached a record 26.1 degrees Celsius in 2024.

However, researchers found that the intensity of heat waves has increased even faster than average temperatures.

Compared with the 1980-2009 reference period, the average magnitude of heat waves in 2023 was more than 7 times higher, while 2025 recorded an increase of nearly 11 times, making the 2 summers the most intense heat wave seasons since 1950.

Although 2024 was the hottest summer on record in terms of average temperatures, its heat waves were less intense than those experienced in 2023 and 2025. The researchers said the findings demonstrate that record-high seasonal temperatures do not necessarily coincide with the most intense heat waves.

According to the study, heat waves are driven by a combination of atmospheric blocking patterns, warm air advection, elevated sea surface temperatures, drought conditions and reduced soil moisture.

The study was conducted by climate scientist Barış Önol and meteorological engineer Tolga Karakaya of ITU’s Department of Climate Science and Meteorological Engineering.

The researchers said the findings point to a fundamental shift in the climate regime across Türkiye and the eastern Mediterranean, highlighting the need to improve extreme heat forecasting and strengthen climate adaptation measures.

In a separate study examining future climate projections, the researchers estimated that the annual number of heat wave days could increase significantly under the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) high-emissions scenario.

Between 2021 and 2050, Istanbul, Ankara and Konya in central Türkiye are projected to experience around 16 heat wave days annually, while Antalya on the Mediterranean coast could see 18 days and Izmir on the Aegean coast 23 days, up from an average of three to five days a year between 1976 and 2005.

For the 2051-2080 period, projections rise to approximately 38 heat wave days annually in Istanbul and Ankara, 40 days in Antalya and Konya, and as many as 53 days in Izmir.

The findings come as the world continues to experience unprecedented warming driven by human-induced climate change. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the past decade has been the warmest on record, with global average temperatures consistently rising above pre-industrial levels.

The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirmed that 2024 remains the hottest year ever recorded globally, becoming the first full calendar year on record to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. 2025 ranked among the three warmest years ever recorded, with the World Meteorological Organization estimating the global average temperature at 1.44 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

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