Türkiye’s shrinking families set off demographic alarm bells

Changes in Türkiye’s fertility rate are fueling debate over the country’s future demographic makeup.

The latest data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) show that the country’s total fertility rate remains below the population replacement level.

According to the data, the total fertility rate – the average number of children a woman aged 15 to 49 is expected to have over her lifetime – fell from 2.38 in 2001 to 1.42 in 2025.

TurkStat data show that the fertility rate has declined every year since 2014 and has remained below the replacement level of 2.10 for the past nine years.

“The decline is part of a long-term social transformation,” said Mehmet Fatih Aysan, a professor from Istanbul’s Marmara University, in an exclusive interview with Daily Sabah.

Aysan, who is director of the Center for Population and Social Policies at the university, said the drop in fertility should not be viewed as a temporary fluctuation but as a lasting social reality.

According to Aysan, the decline reflects a combination of social changes that cannot be explained by economic conditions alone.

He points to social and economic insecurity, urbanization, rising participation by women in education and the workforce and changing family structures as key factors.

The insecurities Aysan described are echoed by couples who have postponed having children.

One married couple who said they are not planning to have children for now said economic concerns are only part of the reason. They also cited uncertainty about the future.

They described the current period as “highly uncertain,” saying economic hardship, wars and global crises have deepened concerns about what lies ahead.

Although both partners are employed, they said rising living costs have made having children increasingly difficult.

“The issue is not only having a child, but also being able to provide a good life,” they said, pointing to the growing costs of childcare, education and everyday living.

For that reason, they said they have postponed having children until they feel more secure and have achieved greater stability in their lives.

However, couples who choose not to have children or delay parenthood say they face not only economic pressures but also social expectations.

“Families, especially parents, often expect grandchildren. Couples without children are seen as though they have not ‘completed’ their family. This should be regarded as a personal choice,” they said.

According to Aysan, another factor shaping fertility decisions is that child care has increasingly become the responsibility of the nuclear family, particularly women.

The unequal burden of child care has become a central issue in discussions about fertility. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also addressed the issue in a speech last year.

“Women often do not receive the support they need from their spouses in raising children. Unfortunately, most of the burden falls on women’s shoulders,” Erdoğan said.

The issue also resonates with couples delaying parenthood.

Another couple said they are concerned about how child care responsibilities would be shared if they became parents.

Aysan said changes in fertility should be viewed not simply as a decline in birth rates but as part of a broader transformation in the country’s demographic structure.

He said shifts in fertility are closely tied to profound changes in lifestyles and priorities and can only be understood by considering cultural and economic dynamics together.

He cited rising divorce rates, weakening social networks, and political and environmental insecurity as additional factors contributing to the trend.

Aysan said another dimension of the transformation is growing individualism.

For younger generations, he said, priorities such as self-fulfillment, traveling, pursuing hobbies and building successful careers have increasingly taken precedence over becoming parents.

He said the traditional ideal of the self-sacrificing mother or the parent who devotes their life to raising children is no longer seen as an attractive or sustainable model for many urban residents. Without understanding this cultural shift, he said, reversing demographic trends will not be possible.

The couple who postponed having children also said they wanted to preserve their current lifestyle, personal goals and the space they have created for themselves.

As debate continues over the social and economic changes behind falling fertility, public policies aimed at addressing the trend have moved higher on Türkiye’s agenda.

Erdoğan has repeatedly highlighted the country’s slowing population growth, warning about the long-term implications of declining fertility.

He has described fertility remaining below the replacement level as a risk to Türkiye’s future.

Speaking at the Family and Culture Symposium last year, Erdoğan said:

“We are facing a disaster. Alarm bells for our future are ringing very loudly. No one who cares about this country’s future can remain indifferent.”

Erdoğan said family and population policies must be strengthened and highlighted the government’s efforts in the area.

“In response to all these challenges, we have accelerated our efforts both to improve our demographic structure and strengthen the family institution. We have declared 2025 the Year of the Family,” he said.

As part of those efforts, the government has introduced a range of policies designed to encourage childbirth.

These include tiered birth and child benefits, expanded parental leave and financial support for working mothers, incentives for marriage and family formation, and broader institutional and social support programs.

Experts, however, say policies focused solely on financial incentives may not be enough to raise fertility.

Aysan said international experience suggests such incentives alone do not produce lasting increases in birth rates.

“Trying to increase fertility only through financial incentives means failing to understand the root of the problem,” he said.

He said direct cash assistance generally has only limited and short-term effects on fertility.

According to Aysan, achieving lasting results requires focusing on work-life balance.

He said women should not be forced to choose between motherhood and their careers and that flexible work arrangements and affordable child care are essential.

If child care responsibilities continue to be shared unequally, he said, women are likely to keep postponing having children.

“If current trends continue, Türkiye could begin to resemble Southern European countries over the next 20 to 30 years, with an aging population and a similar demographic profile,” he said.

He said the number of one-person households and childless couples is expected to increase, family sizes will continue to shrink, and the working-age population will shoulder a growing burden of supporting older adults.

Aysan added that an aging population and rising labor shortages could make Türkiye increasingly dependent on migrant workers, bringing issues of integration and social cohesion to the forefront alongside demographic challenges in the years ahead.

DAILYSABAH