Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today’s edition, Natasha Korecki breaks down the Democratic and the Republican theory of the case in the Texas Senate race. Plus, we lay out what to watch for in tonight’s elections.
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— Adam Wollner
Democrats see an opening in Texas. Is it déjà vu or a breakthrough?
Analysis by Natasha Korecki
Texas Democrats have been here before. Their Senate candidate has shot to national prominence, raised gobs of money and is within striking distance of the Republican in the polls.
In 2018, that was Beto O’Rourke, who ultimately lost narrowly to GOP Sen. Ted Cruz. Today, it’s James Talarico, who’s up against state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
This time, it seems Democrats have learned their lesson about getting too bullish too soon. Even privately, they typically sum up their chances in Texas cautiously, saying it’s the best chance they’ve had in years.
It’s been some 30 years since a Democrat has won statewide in Texas. At the same time, the race appears competitive enough that each party considers Texas a battleground this fall, forcing Republicans to spend in and defend in what typically is safe territory.
“We have it in our top-tier states,” said Lauren French, the communications director for Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC with ties to Senate Democratic leadership. That list includes Maine, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
Here’s what Democrats say they have going for them that could make this year different.
Candidate quality: Talarico is a gifted speaker and a seminarian, who attempts to tap into his Christian faith to attract unlikely supporters.
Meanwhile, Paxton brings some personal baggage to the race. He was impeached by the state House in 2023 — including 70% of the chamber’s Republicans — only to be acquitted in the state Senate. In addition, Paxton’s wife cited “biblical grounds” when she filed for divorce last year.
Fundraising: Talarico has quickly catapulted to one of the top fundraisers in the party. Since 2025, he has brought in $72 million, compared to Paxton’s $16.8 million. That gives him the benefit of paying cheaper ad rates than outside groups and having plenty of runway to reserve TV air time.
Environment and demographics. While President Donald Trump remains popular with the GOP base in Texas, Democrats say they see two vital groups moving away from him: Hispanic voters and independents.
And here’s what Republicans say Paxton has going for him.
Outside money: While Talarico has the edge in candidate fundraising, the cavalry is coming to help Paxton. Tech billionaire Elon Musk is reportedly planning to pour millions of dollars into the Texas Senate race alone. And on Thursday, Trump is slated to head a Republican National Committee fundraiser in Houston that’s aimed at benefiting the state party.
Culture wars: Talarico has walked back some of the “cringey comments” he made in the past, including saying God is “nonbinary.” Expect Republicans to elevate these sort of remarks, as well as what Bernadette Breslin, the national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, referred to as “climate alarmism.”
“The problem for the Democrats excited about James Talarico is the things they like about him … make him unelectable in a Texas general election,” Breslin added.
Structural advantage: It’s still Texas, which has served as a Republican stronghold for decades.
“We’re feeling really confident. … Texas is one of those states that Democrats try to make really competitive,”said RNC national press secretary Natalie Baldassarre.But then reality of the state’s Republican leaning hits, she added.
As for polls showing Talarico close? “As soon as the negative ads start flying, I think they’ll dip from there,” she said.
Trump’s endorsement faces major tests in tonight’s primary runoffs
By Ben Kamisar and Bridget Bowman
Primary season may be starting to slow down, but there are still a couple of notable runoffs in South Carolina and Oklahoma tonight that will test President Donald Trump’s influence over the GOP amid a shaky August for his preferred candidates.
Here are the races to watch.
South Carolina Senate: Trump has expended significant political capital to boost appointed Sen. Darline Graham in this race. He appeared in the state last week for a rally, held a tele-rally last night, and his allied super PAC has spent $830,000 on texts and phone calls to voters.
Graham is facing off against Rep. Ralph Norman in a primary runoff to replace her late brother on the November ballot. As Steve Kornacki notes in his “Data Dive” newsletter, Graham led 33% to 25% in the first round of voting earlier this month and finished ahead of Norman in 36 of the state’s 46 counties. But she has faced renewed scrutiny over her lack of experience in the final stretch of the campaign.
Oklahoma governor: Trump also waded in here, with former state Sen. Mike Mazzei leaning heavily into the president’s endorsement as he seeks to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt.
Mazzei narrowly finished second to state Attorney General Gentner Drummond in the initial June primary. Drummond has been embracing the president too: His website prominently features a photograph of him standing alongside Trump. But Trump has taken to social media in recent days to pan Drummond as a “fake Republican.”
Oklahoma Senate: Even ruby red Oklahoma is hosting an ideological and generational Democratic clash. The leading vote-getter in the initial Democratic Senate primary was 31-year-old N’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas, who identifies as a democratic socialist. She’s facing 70-year-old Jim Priest, a moderate attorney and minister. Either would be a heavy underdog against Republican Rep. Kevin Hern in November.
Georgia’s 13th District: There’s also a special election to serve the remainder of Rep. David Scott’s term. The race is between two Democrats: Marcye Scott, the late congressman’s daughter, and former Gwinnett County School Board Chairman Everton Blair. Scott led Blair in the preliminary primary 46% to 37%.
🎥 Tune in to the Kornacki Cam at 7 p.m. ET to watch Steve break down tonight’s results.
- 🇨🇦 Trade war: The Canadian government retaliated against Trump’s latest wave of tariffs by raising rates on steel products and adding a swath of new duties on $20-billion worth of U.S. products exported to Canada. Meanwhile, Trump threatened to change the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America.
- 🇮🇷 Iran war: Iran has vowed to retaliate against widened U.S. sanctions, saying Washington should “expect an attack” in response to the measures. Read more →
- 🔴 Before and after: Ralph Alvarado, who is running for Congress in Kentucky with Trump’s endorsement, removed a series of mentions of the president from his campaign website after winning his primary. Read more →
- 🔵 On to the general: Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed distanced himself from progressive commentator Hasan Piker, who suggested that some pro-Israel rhetoric may lead to backlash against American Jews. El-Sayed also appeared on Fox News for an interview with Jesse Watters, repeatedly pivoting from “culture war” questions to refocus on affordability.
- 🏛️ Extreme makeover: The Trump administration threatened the demolition of the Kennedy Center if the arts institution isn’t allowed to follow its plans for the site, including adding the president’s name to the front of the building. Read more →
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.
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