NFL kickoff game preview: Why the under 44.5 is the play in Seahawks-Patriots rematch

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After months of waiting, and me writing roughly 20,000+ words about the upcoming NFL season, with a preview for every team, we have finally reached the opening night of the new NFL year. As usual, it starts with the Super Bowl Champion starting their title defense at home. This year, on NBC, we get the New England Patriots taking on the Seattle Seahawks in a Super Bowl rematch.

The Patriots didn’t take the offseason off after getting to the championship game. They were aggressive in upgrading their offense now that they believe in Drake Maye. They lost Stefon Diggs, but they added AJ Brown, who is still a very good receiver, even if he wasn’t very happy with the Philadelphia Eagles. The bigger offseason story surrounded their head coach, Mike Vrabel, and his alleged affair with reporter Diana Russini.

How all of these distractions and changes come into play will be determined in this game. I think this team has enough talent to battle for the division again. However, this year is different from last season. Last year, the Patriots were a surprise, Maye was an MVP candidate, and the team shocked the league. This year a tougher schedule awaits, and Maye, in my opinion, had the best season of his career last year.

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The Seahawks were a buzz saw in the playoffs. They destroyed pretty much everyone, with the exception of the Los Angeles Rams. They completely dismantled and destroyed the San Francisco 49ers in their first playoff game, and then they outlasted the Rams 31-27. In the Super Bowl, they beat the Patriots 29-13. It was a fairly boring game, unfortunately. The Seahawks were never really in jeopardy of losing the game and were up 12-0 after three quarters, scoring just field goals.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) drops back to pass as offensive tackle Charles Cross (67) defends against a rush by New England Patriots defensive end Milton Williams (97) during the first half of the NFL Super Bowl 60 football game, Sunday, Feb. 8, 2026, in Santa Clara, Calif. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Even with a somewhat exciting fourth quarter, it was too little too late for the Patriots, and the Seahawks hoisted the trophy. The Seahawks lost their Super Bowl MVP running back, and they lost their offensive coordinator. That could change things up a bit, as Sam Darnold saw a lot of success last year under him. Defensively, the team should still be strong, but this is a tough division, so we will see how it goes.

Defending Super Bowl Champions are 13-5 in the NFL Kickoff Game. If you look at how they perform overall in the first week, typically they win about 70-80% of the games over the past two decades. Teams that lose the Super Bowl are 10-15. However, they have been a bit better over the past 13 years, going 8-5.

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Both of these teams should be carried by their defense. That isn’t to say they have no offense; I just think their defenses will be better earlier in the year. We have Maye, who struggled mightily against this defense, and won’t be great tonight. Then we have Darnold with a new offensive coordinator. I am going to back the under 44.5 in this one. I do think the Seahawks win and cover the -3, but I’ll just back the under. Note that the Seahawks safety Ty Okada is out and Nick Emmanwori is questionable. That could open up the field a bit for the Patriots.

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For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024

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