Türkiye recorded the first current account surplus in nine months in July, official data showed Friday, as strong services revenues and an improvement in the trade deficit supported the external balance.
Data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) showed the current account balance posted a $36 million surplus in July. The balance last posted a surplus in October 2025, when it stood at $477 million.
The current account excluding gold and energy registered a $4.97 billion surplus, compared with a $1.4 billion surplus a month earlier, according to the data.
The balance of payments-defined foreign trade deficit stood at $5.58 billion in July.
On an annualized basis, Türkiye’s current-account deficit was about $40.7 billion in July, while the balance of payments-defined foreign trade deficit stood at $77.2 billion.
Services, meanwhile, generated a net surplus of $63.5 billion, partially offsetting deficits of $25.2 billion in primary income and $1.9 billion in secondary income.
Services remained a key contributor to the monthly balance, posting net inflows of $8.23 billion in July; travel, under services, generated net revenue of $5.97 billion, while transportation contributed $2.89 billion.
The improvement came as global economic uncertainty remained elevated amid risks stemming from the Middle East, with higher energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions emerging as a key threat to the global outlook.
Exporters’ strong position
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said exporters had maintained their position in global markets despite rising uncertainty and cost pressures in global trade, supported by product and market diversification, strong production infrastructure and their ability to adapt quickly to changing conditions.
In a post on the social media platform X, he said resilient services exports were also supporting the external balance and that further steps would be taken to strengthen exporters’ competitiveness.
Şimşek added that structural transformation policies aimed at strengthening high-technology and value-added production would continue, helping Türkiye improve its competitiveness and supply security in response to changes in global trade and geopolitical developments.
On the financing side, portfolio investments recorded a net inflow of $5.84 billion in July, the CBRT data showed.
Non-residents made net purchases of $1.97 billion in equities and investment funds and $2.37 billion in government domestic debt securities. They also recorded net purchases of securities issued abroad by Turkish banks and the general government worth $914 million and $1.71 billion, respectively.
Direct investment posted a net inflow of $514 million during the month. Non-resident direct investment inflows amounted to $1.15 billion, while residents’ external assets increased by $640 million.
Türkiye’s official reserves increased by $14.25 billion in July, the data also showed.
Services key supporter
Kutay Gözgör, research director at Kuveyt Türk Investment, said strong services revenues during the summer season and a monthly improvement in the trade deficit had supported the current account balance.
He described the sharp increase in the current account excluding gold and energy as a positive signal for the underlying trend in the economy.
“The increase in travel revenues, particularly with the effect of the tourism season, as well as the recovery in transportation revenues supported the services balance,” Gözgör told Anadolu Agency (AA). “In addition, the monthly narrowing of the foreign trade deficit was decisive in the current account posting a surplus.”
Gözgör said energy prices and geopolitical developments remained the main risks to the outlook.
He noted that imports rose 10.5% year-over-year in August, with higher energy prices playing a prominent role, while geopolitical risks stemming from the Iran war could put further upward pressure on oil and natural gas prices and widen the trade and current account deficits in the remainder of the year.
Market expectations put Türkiye’s 2026 year-end current account deficit at around $51 billion, while the latest CBRT Market Participants Survey showed an expectation of about $50.1 billion.
Kuveyt Türk Investment maintains its forecast for a $52.9 billion deficit, based on an assumption of Brent crude averaging $84 a barrel.
Brent crude futures were last down $3.45, or 3.21%, to $104.18 a barrel at 1132 GMT Friday. But oil prices remained on course for a weekly gain of more than 8%, as attacks along Middle East shipping routes stoked concerns about prolonged supply disruptions.
Ismet Demirkol, founder of Pariterium Consultancy, said tourism revenues remained crucial to Türkiye’s current account balance.
Although the Iran war had weighed on tourism revenues, a recovery in recent months, combined with seasonal effects, had supported tourism activity and the current account, he said.
Demirkol added that exports of higher-value-added products, particularly technology products, would be increasingly important for improving the external balance.
He also highlighted renewable energy investment, saying greater use of green energy could reduce Türkiye’s structural reliance on oil, natural gas and coal and contribute to a longer-term goal of running current account surpluses.
DAILYSABAH
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