Canadian premier says prepared for ‘extreme tail risk’ of US military action

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said his government had examined the possibility of US military action against Canada as an “extreme tail risk,” while noting that he remains in frequent contact with President Donald Trump despite deteriorating trade relations, The New York Times reported Wednesday.

Asked whether he took Trump’s past suggestions that Canada could become the 51st US state seriously, Carney said governments have a responsibility to prepare for unlikely but potentially severe scenarios.

“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” he said, declining to detail Canada’s preparations. “That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to.”

Carney said he and Trump have spoken “frequently,” including several times since bilateral trade negotiations collapsed in August.

“From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues,” he said.

Canada suspended the negotiations on Aug. 21 after Carney said Washington introduced last-minute terms that Ottawa considered unfair and economically damaging.

Carney also outlined efforts to reduce Canada’s reliance on US technology and suppliers, including plans to diversify away from Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network and a review of Canada’s planned purchase of 88 US-made F-35 fighter jets.

He said Canada wants to deepen economic ties with other countries, including China, while ruling out closer defense ties with Beijing.

Despite the trade dispute, Carney said there remains room for a mutually beneficial agreement with Washington.

He pointed to Canadian potash, which accounts for most US imports of the key fertilizer ingredient, as a potential area for cooperation. Trump said earlier this week that Washington was pursuing a potash deal with Belarus.

Carney said Canada would continue seeking greater economic and strategic diversification even under a future US administration.