WTO raises 2026 goods trade growth forecast to 3.9%, cuts services outlook

The World Trade Organization on Thursday raised its forecast for global goods trade growth this year to 3.9% from 1.9%, as strong demand linked to artificial intelligence investment helped offset disruptions caused by the Middle East war.

The organization lowered its services trade growth projection to 3.3% from the 4.8% forecast in March, according to its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report.

Global merchandise trade volumes expanded 3.5% in the first half of 2026, exceeding expectations despite shocks to the energy, fertilizer and transport markets.

Trade in AI-enabling goods, including semiconductors and servers, surged 67% year-on-year, accounting for 47% of global merchandise trade growth during the period.

The WTO said the performance reflected the ability of supply chains to adapt, with alternative suppliers and transport routes helping maintain trade flows.

ALTERNATIVE SUPPLIES CUSHION DISRUPTIONS

Middle Eastern crude oil exports fell about 24% year-on-year in the first half, while liquefied natural gas exports dropped 47%.

Increased shipments from other suppliers helped limit the decline in global exports to 6% for crude oil and 1% for LNG.

Fertilizer markets also adjusted as alternative suppliers stepped in, while trade flows were redirected through other ports and corridors.

Global container throughput rose 3.9% year-on-year between the start of 2026 and mid-July.

The WTO expects merchandise trade to grow 4.1% in 2027, with services trade expanding 6.4%.

GAINS REMAIN UNEVEN

The organization warned that the benefits of resilient goods trade and AI investment were not evenly distributed, with services trade and some regions more exposed to conflict.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said an integrated global economy and a rules-based trading system gave economies the flexibility to maintain supplies of essential goods during disruptions.

However, some economies had felt the shock more severely, while access to emerging opportunities such as AI remained unequal, she said.

She stressed the importance of ensuring the trading system continued to absorb shocks and narrow gaps so that opportunities remained open to all.