New poll shows narrowing race between Bolsonaro and Lula in Brazil presidential runoff

Conservative Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are locked in a tight statistical tie ahead of Brazil’s Oct. 25 presidential runoff, according to a new CNT/MDA poll released this week.

The survey shows Bolsonaro holding 46.8% of overall voter preferences compared to 45.9% for Lula. When calculating valid votes, -excluding blank, spoiled, and undecided ballots-, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 50.5% to 49.5%.

The poll is the first published by CNT/MDA following the Oct. 4 first round, where the senator, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, defied pre-election polling to top the initial vote with 47.03% against Lula’s 45.16%. In a previous CNT/MDA survey released a week prior, Bolsonaro led with 52% of valid votes to Lula’s 48%.

The MDA survey questioned 2,014 voters between Oct. 13 and 15 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

A separate Datafolha poll published on Thursday similarly reflected a narrowing gap, showing Bolsonaro’s lead shrinking from four percentage points to two. In that survey, Bolsonaro registered 51% of valid votes against Lula’s 49%, placing the rivals within the poll’s two-point margin of error.

As the race enters its final stretch, Bolsonaro is working to consolidate his father’s conservative base while broadening his appeal. Lula, seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, is heavily targeting the more than 33 million registered voters who abstained in the first round.

To rally support, the ruling Workers’ Party achieved a major legislative victory on Wednesday as Congress approved a constitutional amendment abolishing Brazil’s six-day workweek, a flagship Lula campaign pledge. The reform replaces the traditional “6×1” schedule (six workdays followed by one day off) with a five-day workweek, gradually lowering maximum weekly hours from 44 to 40 without salary reductions.

The proposal passed the Senate overwhelmingly by a 75-1 vote. Recognizing the measure’s widespread popular appeal, Bolsonaro reversed his initial opposition and ultimately voted in favor of the amendment.

The labor reform anchors a series of late-campaign economic initiatives by the Lula administration, including a debt forgiveness program for micro-entrepreneurs, a college scholarship fund, fuel tax eliminations, and a proposal for a free public transit pass.