Pentagon says Iran war has cost US taxpayers $47bn: What that means

The Pentagon has told lawmakers in the United States that the war on Iran has cost American taxpayers at least $47.1bn so far.

The estimate, disclosed last week, comes just days before the November 3 midterm elections, which will determine if US President Donald Trump’s Republican Party will maintain control of Congress for the next two years.

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We take a close look at the Pentagon estimate, and what it means for the US economy and the midterm elections.

What has the Pentagon spending report revealed?

The Pentagon told Congress that the cost of the US-Israel war on Iran as of October 16 had risen to at least $47.1bn.

Congress officials shared the Pentagon’s cost estimate breakdown with The New York Times.

According to the Times and other US media reports, the Pentagon’s estimate covers the operational costs of the war and includes a projected cost of $29bn needed to replace expended munitions such as bombs, bullets and other military hardware that has been deployed in the war so far.

It also reveals that since the war started on February 28, the US Air Force has spent $7.6bn on fighter and bomber units; the US Navy has spent $1.5bn on two dozen warships and aircraft carriers; and the US Army has spent $2.1bn to sustain its troops in the Middle East.

According to the US Central Command, there are more than 50,000 American troops stationed in the Middle East, comprising personnel deployed to large, permanent bases and to smaller forward sites across the region.

Officials told the Times that the Pentagon has spent $6.1bn to replace damaged aircraft and munitions, $645m on transport and support for commandos in the region and $24.5m on “in-house medical support” for US service members.

A congressional official added that the US Transportation Command also spent $92.2m to move equipment, and the US Cyber Command spent $14m on “cyber support operations”.

The Pentagon’s estimate, however, does not include how much Washington will need to spend to repair its damaged military bases across the Middle East and also does not take into account the cost of fuel, which is needed to power ships and aircraft used in the war.

While the Pentagon has publicly acknowledged 18 US service member fatalities in the war, The Washington Post has cited six unnamed US officials stating the true death toll is at least 22. According to the official Pentagon Defense Casualty Analysis System (DCAS) database, 865 military personnel have been wounded in the war with Iran.

What is the response?

According to an October 19 report by USA Today, five senators from the Democratic Party had written to Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of US Central Command, demanding that the Pentagon reveal the true cost of the war. Their letter said the Trump administration’s “ongoing efforts to hide the true cost of this war are outrageous and unacceptable”.

Trump has not commented on the latest Pentagon estimate. But the Trump administration’s war on Iran has grown increasingly unpopular with US citizens due to its impact on US and global energy costs.

Since early March, shortly after the war began, Iran has closed the critical Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf, through which about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies were shipped until then. This has sent the price of oil spiralling and caused shortages globally. In the US, diesel, which is heavily relied on by farmers and small businesses, has nearly doubled in price.

In a post on X following the latest Pentagon report, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York wrote: “For eight months, American families have been buried by the heavy cost of Trump’s disastrous war in Iran.

“Trump and his ego led us into this war with no plan, no authority, and no exit strategy,” he added.

How does the Pentagon’s estimate compare with past calculations?

Estimates for the cost of the Iran war to the US have risen steadily as the war has continued.

The Pentagon’s latest estimate is higher than the $38bn the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecast in September.

It is also higher than the $37.5bn price tag that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave in July this year. Hegseth confirmed this amount during a hearing before the Senate appropriations committee and added that the cost covered some operations and maintenance extending through to the end of September.

Hegseth’s July estimate was already about $8bn higher than the previous figure released by the administration of President Donald Trump in May – $29bn.

Prior to the May estimate, in late April the Pentagon’s comptroller Jules Hurst reported that the war would cost $25bn.

Meanwhile, with the war entering its ninth month and no peace deal in sight, last month the CBO said the war with Iran could cost approximately $2bn to $3bn per month for as long as it continues.

The Pentagon’s inspector general also said last month that US troops are facing “strategic inventory shortfalls” as the war continues.

But the Trump administration has denied it is running low on weapons stockpiles.

“Cowards and traitors would like to say that the United States is short of ammunition, but that is not true. We have more ammunition than we could ever imagine using. And we are producing it at levels we have never reached before,” Trump told the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September.

Trump has also repeatedly stated that the Iran war will end when he wants it to.

Last week at an election rally in Texas, according to a report by CNBC, Trump said: “Somebody asked me before, ‘When will the war in Iran end?’ I said, ‘Whenever I want it to end.’”

What does the rising cost of the war mean for the midterm elections?

The US-Israel war on Iran has affected the US economy through direct government spending as well as rising energy and fuel costs.

On Wednesday, the average price of a gallon of diesel in the US hit $6.35, compared with $3.75 last year, according to the American Automobile Association.

Higher fuel costs are also driving up the cost of food – with shortages of oil and gas affecting nearly every stage of the food supply chain.

Meanwhile, the country’s national debt has surpassed a record $40 trillion, two years before expected.

As a result, the war has become deeply unpopular in the US and Trump’s approval ratings have slumped to just 33 percent – the lowest they have been at any time during his two terms as president.

With five days to go before the midterms, analysts say confirmation by the Pentagon of the high cost of the war is likely to affect how people in the US vote.

Currently, the Democrats lead Republicans by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent, a gap of 8.2 percentage points, according to RealClearPolling’s national polling average.

Chris Featherstone, a political scientist from the University of York in the United Kingdom, said this is an issue that hits at two key pillars of Trump’s political rhetoric: his promise to initiate “no new wars” during his campaign for the presidency in 2024, and his emphasis on fixing the American economy.

“The spiralling cost of the conflict for the taxpayer, and the lack of a clear end point resembles the critiques Trump levelled at the war in Afghanistan in his first presidential election campaign,” he told Al Jazeera.

According to the Costs of War Project at Brown University, the war in Afghanistan, which began in 2001, cost the US an estimated $2.26 trillion to $2.3 trillion in total across multiple presidential administrations, including George W Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump.

“While many of Trump’s most loyal MAGA voters are likely to remain loyal to Trump in the midterms despite the cost of the Iran conflict, the more peripheral supporters seem to be drifting away from the president ahead of the midterms, and the significant impact of this conflict on cost of living appears to be a major factor,” Featherstone said.

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