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The top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (3-0) look to be the only team in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs to pull off a sweep when they visit the 8-seed Phoenix Suns (0-3) for Game 4 Monday.
Oklahoma City has utterly dominated Phoenix in this series: The Thunder have a +20.0 scoring margin and are winning all “four factors.”
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The foul-merchant and reigning NBA MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander,has been tearing the Suns apart. Shai is averaging 34.7 points on 54.1% shooting and 8.0 assists in this series and has gotten to the foul line 38 times.
Yet, as we saw Sunday with the Kevin Durant-less Houston Rockets against the Los Angeles Lakers, it’s tough to sweep a team, regardless of how poorly they have played in the series or who is on their injury report.
Like Houston this past weekend, Phoenix will show professional pride and play OKC tough in Game 4. I’m not saying the Suns will prevent the sweep. But they will cover the spread. Or at least that’s how I’m betting it.
Best bet: Phoenix Suns +10.5
It’s impossible to make a statistical argument for Phoenix here. Oklahoma City is outclassing the Suns in every way.
However, nearly 90% of the action is on the Thunder at the time of writing, per Pregame.com. While betting splits and “fading the market” can be an overrated handicapping angle, I’d rather be on the same side as the sportsbooks than the public.
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Also, OKC is missing its second-leading scorer, wing Jalen Williams, and Phoenix’s best scorers are healthy. Suns wing Dillon Brooks, SG Jalen Green and five-time NBA All-Star Devin Booker are all averaging 20+ points in this series. They just need a couple of the role players to step up, and they can steal a game.
Furthermore, if the refs swallow their whistles and don’t send Gilgeous-Alexander to the charity stripe every time he flops, it’ll be a lot harder for OKC to blow Phoenix out.
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Again, most of this analysis is narrative-based because there just isn’t a basketball argument for betting the Suns Monday. But sometimes weird things happen in sports, especially in the playoffs, and I have a feeling Phoenix keeps Game 4 closer than the market does.
Prediction: Thunder 112, Suns 106
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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.
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